Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were stable, following tendencies of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
July, August 2025 and the following monthes resource trading lasted last week. In general, natural gas purchse and sale positions were formed by GTS Operatoe of Ukraine and LTK Electrum.
The starting prices of resources in the midle and long-term market section changed differently, depending on the direction of the position – for purchase or sale. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the August resource in the GTS was 5,17% higher than Monday’s figure.
During the past week, purchase positions were sold. A total of 3000 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. The entire volume was purchased by the GTS Operator of Ukraine and prices were formed in the range of UAH 20397-20875 excluding VAT.
Also, in the section Cross-border, customs warehouse about 7 million cubic meters were sold at a price of EUR 37,65 MWh UAH with delivery at a point on the international border.
On the short-term natural gas market of UEEX, participants formed orders on the intraday market. No exchange rates were formed during the week. The weighted average price of the short-term roduct on Friday, August 1, was UAH 20800 excluding VAT and remained unchanged during the week.
European market
European gas prices rose last week, driven by news from the US and Norway. The Freeport LNG export terminal in America reported a weekend power outage that affected its cargo terminal. These problems were partially resolved, but on Wednesday the terminal experienced another power outage, affecting the export terminal. At the same time, Norway reported problems at its Karsto gas processing complex (which supplies gas to Germany, Belgium, France and the UK), with initial losses of 22 million cubic metres per day, which were reduced to 13 million cubic metres per day on Friday. As a result, flows originally destined for the UK were being redirected to Germany.
The situation is likely to change further in August, with the start of a maintenance period in Norway until September 20, which will reduce gas supplies to the UK and the European continent.
In addition, the market continues to feel the effects of the ever-changing tariff situation, as the United States continues to pressure Russia to reach a peace deal by raising tariffs on its trading partners. On the morning of July 31, gas prices fell slightly on news that the White House would impose secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia. However, this initially did not apply to gas, giving Europe confidence that it would continue to receive LNG from the country. However, this claim is under threat as, according to the latest news, President Trump will impose a standard tariff of 25% plus a “penalty” on India for buying weapons or energy from Russia. This “penalty” could be extended to other countries or regions, leading to a reduction in supplies to the European continent.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh, 31.07.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 35,50 | 38,10 | 34,27 | 37,90 | 37,23 | 36,60 |
| M+1 | 36,51 | 38,46 | 35,31 | 38,35 | 38,20 | 37,37 |
| Q +1 | 37,63 | 38,62 | 36,38 | 40,28 | 38,26 | 38,23 |
| S +1 | 37,86 | 38,81 | 36,65 | 40,88 | 38,45 | 38,53 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had the same trend with respect to spot prices – an increase of 2,12% on average. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by 4,51% on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 38,53 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by 5,32% on average.
Average temperatures in Europe, despite periods of extreme heat, had little impact on prices.
Gas supplies remain stable, allowing for gas to be pumped into storage ahead of the winter period. However, this process remains tightly balanced, given the growing demand in Asia. Gas imports to India started to rise in July after falling by 15% compared to the same period in 2024, as a cooler summer allowed for lower electricity consumption.
The September LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 431,03 per thousand cubic meters on July 31. The LNG North West Europe Marker futures closed at USD 403,65 per thousand cubic meters. At the same time, there are early signs of tankers reorienting from Europe to Latin America (especially Brazil and Colombia), signaling an increase in supply dynamics.
European gas storage is currently 68,34% full, continuing to fill by more than 2,5% per week, alleviating concerns about storage levels as winter approaches.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating at an average capacity of 79,25% on 30 July.
EU LNG stocks as of 30 July 2025 were 5,316 million cubic metres, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories.
The largest LNG exporter, the United States, had storage capacity of 3,123 billion cubic feet as of July 25, 2025, according to the latest EIA data, up 6,7% from the five-year average.
In the related market, oil prices fell on July 31 as investors became more cautious ahead of an August 1 deadline for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose tariffs and uncertainty for countries that have yet to reach a trade deal with Washington. As a result, Brent crude fell 1% to close at USD 72,53 per barrel. Brent crude was trading at USD 71,36 per barrel on the morning of August 1.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction during the week amounted to an average of 27 million cubic meters per day, from Hungary, Poland, Moldova and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used, although recently the share of other directions has been increasing. There were about 9.7 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. There was practically no withdrawal. Injection amounted to more than 50 million cubic meters per day.
Meanwhile, from July 24 to August 1 inclusive, 0,4 million cubic meters of biomethane were exported from Ukraine to Poland daily. Exports of traditional natural gas remain prohibited.
Interesting for the week
According to Reuters, in July, Russian gas exports to Europe via TurkStream increased by 37% — the average daily flow was 51,5 million cubic meters/day, compared to 37,6 million cubic meters in June. This is 4,7% higher than the July 2024 level.
Already in September, the European Commission plans to pool companies’ demand (the "AggregateEU" program) for the purchase of American LNG — as part of a large USD 750 billion energy package. The goal is to reduce dependence on other suppliers and support agreements in the gas segment.
According to the results of the auction for the distribution of the joint product along the Trans-Balkan Corridor, which took place on July 28, 2025 on the Regional Booking Platform (RBP), 0.4 million cubic meters of daily capacity were booked for August 2025, which is more than double the result of last month’s auction. The joint product provides access to the combined firm capacity of the GTS Operators DESFA (Greece), Bulgartransgaz (Bulgaria), VestMoldTransgaz (Moldova), Transgaz (Romania) and OGTSU (Ukraine) for the transportation of natural gas from Greece to Ukraine. The product is available for booking from June to October 2025.