Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine maintained an upward trend, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in the resource for April, May 2025 and subsequent months continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 5 companies: D. Trading, GTS Operator of Ukraine, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Kyiv Metropolitan, and Centerenergy.
The starting prices of resources were practically unchanged during the week. Only purchase positions were sold. The offers of the GTS Operator of Ukraine and Kyiv Metropolitan turned out to be successful. All sold gas will be delivered to the VTP GTS or gas metering unit. In total, 12 970 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold and the following quoted prices were formed:
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the Ukrainian GTS on the intraday market. Last week, the price increased compared to the previous period. On Friday, April 18, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 15130.50 excluding VAT.
European market
Energy prices seem to have stabilized with minimal changes over the past few days compared to last week. The volatility observed after Trump’s announcement of tariffs dissipated, with limited daily movement in M+1 gas contracts. Going forward, the tariffs could slow global trade and industrial production, reducing gas demand in import-heavy economies. The introduction of reciprocal tariffs from Europe in response to US imports could raise gas prices as European countries rely on US LNG imports this summer to replenish storage, potentially adding a risk premium to the market.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the respective period, EUR/MWh, 04/17/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 36,43 | 38,18 | 35,61 | 37,46 | 38,76 | 37,29 |
| M+1 | 36,66 | 38,19 | 35,62 | 38,42 | 36,25 | 37,03 |
| Q +1 | 37,19 | 38,48 | 36,13 | 39,14 | 36,56 | 37,50 |
| S +1 | 38,20 | 39,04 | 36,68 | 41,86 | 37,50 | 38,66 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0.64%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.63%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 38.66 EUR/MWh tended to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 3.72%.
In order to replenish EU storage facilities this summer, LNG supplies to Northwest Europe (NWE - Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands) are needed. Northwest Europe is to receive 90 shipments this month, which is 16 shipments less than last month. The United States continues to increase LNG exports, with a forecasted 5% growth in supplies in 2025. Given the expected large volumes of supply from North America, European markets could benefit from improved access and more competitive prices, especially during peak summer demand and storage replenishment.A key EU vote on storage fill requirements is scheduled for April 24, and its outcome could directly affect the dynamics of injections and risk profiles in the winter of 2025. This could allow countries to postpone the deadline for achieving storage targets, as well as reduce the overall fill requirement from 90% to 80%.
The TTF premium to the NBP was 2.88 GBP/therm on April 17, which encourages LNG supplies from the UK to Europe. The UK will experience a shortage of LNG supplies compared to last month, as the expected total for this month is 8. Also, since the end of March, the UK has been exporting gas to Belgium and the Netherlands through two interconnectors (IUK and BBL).
In the UK, the NBP Day-Ahead price increased by 0.2% on April 17 to close at £86.35/therm. Volumes from Norway decreased by 4 mcm/d due to outages at Barrow North and Bacton Perenco.
The May futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on April 17 at USD 446.14 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 421.58 per thousand cubic meters. Forecasts indicate a decline in LNG imports to Asia, especially China, due to weak economic prospects. This opens up the possibility of redirecting cargoes to the west.
At present, weather conditions are currently at odds with various forecasts for temperatures at the end of this month, but this could change within a few days.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 35.96%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 26.54%.
European LNG terminals were operating on April 16 with an average capacity of 77.87%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of April 16, 2025 amounted to 5.029 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of April 11, 2025, was 1.846 bcf, which is 3.9% below the average for the last five years.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on April 18, 2025 were trading above the previous session’s close and were at USD 69.96/barrel after new US sanctions against Iran, as well as OPEC+ promises to further reduce production. The market continues to assess the potential impact of the US-China trade war on economic growth and energy demand, as the 90-day pause in the US tariff hike for all countries remains in place, with the exception of China.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came from Poland and Hungary at an average volume of 8.5 mcm per day, all to the ‘bonded warehouse’. Exports from the bonded warehouse were observed only to Moldova on April 14 in the amount of 0.6 mcm. Ukraine had about 5.4 billion cubic meters in storage. The withdrawal amounted about 2 million cubic meters per day until Wednesday. The change from the withdrawal period to the injection period in UGS took place on Thursday, April 17.
Public procurement
Last week, 6 tender procedures were held for the purchase of natural gas by budgetary institutions. In total, 57,315.64 cubic meters of natural gas were sold for the amount of UAH 925,588.54. The largest contract was awarded to MIDAS HOLDING, the recipient - the State Energy Supervision Inspectorate of Ukraine, at an initial price of UAH 17.34 per cubic meter. The average price was UAH 16.43 per cubic meter. Prices ranged from UAH 15.75 to UAH 17.34 per cubic meter.
Interesting for the week
The European Union is working on a roadmap for phasing out purchases of russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), which should signal to companies that they can buy more fuel from the United States. This was stated by European Council President Antonio Costa, Bloomberg reports. It is noted that the 27-nation bloc plans to unveil its plan to abandon energy purchases from Russia on May 6.
Ukrnafta is currently using computer neural network models to facilitate the processing of large data sets and optimize the solution of complex geological and technical problems. “Ukrnafta’s decades of experience have become the basis for innovative solutions based on artificial intelligence: the company is actively implementing machine learning in Ukrainian oil and gas production,” the company said on Tuesday.