Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine increased, while on the European markets due to aster holidays, prices were stable.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, April, May and June resource tade were ongoing. In general 8 Companies were forming positions for the purchase and sale: Energo Zbut Trans, Tviy Gaz, GTS Operator of Ukraine, GPK Oil & Gas Trading, Eru Trading, D.Trading, Kyivvodokanal, Nadra-Geoinvest.
Resources starting prices were decreased during the week. To sum it up, as of Friday, average starting price of May resource in GTS was higher than Monday indicator at 0,33. Sales and purchase positions were sold last week. In general 5460,00 th. c.m. of natural gas were sold. Winning positions for purchase belonged to GTS Operator of Ukraine, JSC Kyivvodokanal and for sale - Eru Trading. The following quoting prices were formed by last week sales:
At UEEX short-term natural gas market participants were formed applications in GTS of Ukraine and in UGS on intraday market. Last week, compared to the previous period, price increase was fixed. Weighted average short-term price on Friday , April 25, was UAH 15146,86 excl. VAT.
European market
Last week, prices remained in a wide range and waited for news to find a clear direction. The constant changes in the US-China “trade war” pose a risk to investors due to this uncertainty. LNG exporting companies in the US have said they are concerned about ongoing capacity expansion projects because the necessary equipment has to be imported. Currently, import duties with China make the project economically unviable, which could lead to a decrease in LNG exports to the European continent.
The majority of liquefied natural gas supplies are expected to come in the second half of 2025 as new production from liquefaction plants ramp up. However, global competition for flexible LNG cargoes remains unpredictable, especially during heat waves and/or supply disruptions.
The NBP-TTF spread widened to a discount of £2,9/therm. on April 24, which encourages LNG shipments from the UK to Europe. In the UK, the NBP Day-Ahead price decreased by 2,14% compared to the previous session on April 24 and closed at £81,81/therm. Volumes from Norway decreased by 3 mcm/d to 59 mcm/d due to a reduction at Langeled. Gassco published a few minor changes to its planned maintenance for the summers of 2025 and 2026, with no noticeable impact.
The June futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on April 24 at USD 411,88 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 382,52 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 37,73% as of April 23, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas reserves in the UK was 42%.
European LNG terminals were operating on April 23 with an average capacity of 77,85%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of April 23, 2025 amounted to 5,300 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 24.04.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 34,27 | 35,46 | 33,73 | 35,99 | 36,17 | 35,12 |
| M+1 | 34,36 | 35,69 | 33,51 | 36,19 | 34,11 | 34,77 |
| Q +1 | 34,83 | 36,20 | 33,96 | 36,98 | 34,33 | 35,26 |
| S +1 | 36,14 | 36,85 | 34,60 | 39,91 | 35,26 | 36,55 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices – a decrease of 0,98% on average. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by 0,42% on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 36,55 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by 4,07% on average.
Storage filling level of the largest LNG exporter, the USA, according to the latest EIA data as of April 18, 2025. was 1,934 billion cubic meters. ft., which is 2,2% below the five-year average.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on April 25, 2025 were trading below the close of the previous session and were at USD 66,20 / barrel due to supply problems and weak demand.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports last week came from Poland and Hungary at an average volume of 8,7 million cubic meters per day, all to the “customs warehouse”. There was no export from the “customs warehouse”. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained about 5,4 billion cubic meters. There was practically no withdrawal. Injection amounted to about 24 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
The European Commission is studying the possibility of a legislative ban on EU companies signing new contracts to purchase fossil fuels from Russia, Reuters reported, citing informed sources. The ban on signing new contracts is aimed at reducing spot purchases by European companies of russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). In addition, the European Commission is working on legal mechanisms that would allow companies to terminate existing contracts for the supply of russian gas without penalties. This includes the possibility of applying the legal principle of force majeure. These steps are being considered against the background of the fact that some EU member states have already announced their intention to block any new sanctions against russian gas imports. Therefore, the European Commission is looking for alternative instruments to accelerate the end of Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. It is expected that on May 6, the European Commission will publish a "roadmap" that will contain specific options for further action, including possible trade measures.
Naftogaz Group and Orlen have signed a new agreement for the supply of 100 million cubic meters of LNG, the company’s press service reports. This is the third contract within the partnership, concluded in the spring of this year. The total volume of contracted gas is 300 million cubic meters. The signing of the contract was announced at the annual Orlen Gas Meeting, a leading industry event dedicated to the energy security of the region.
The European Parliament’s Energy Committee has approved a proposal to lower the EU’s gas storage target from 90% to 83%, which is to be implemented between October 1 and December 1, with the possibility of deviations in the event of “market stress.” The full parliament will debate the proposal on May 5, and if it is adopted by October 1, it could be implemented this winter.