Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week natural gas prices in Ukraine on its growth in line with the prices of European hubs, which have been on a downward trend.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
April, May and June 2025 resource trade was ongoing last week. In general natural gas purchase and sale positions were formed by 5 Companies: GSC Naftogaz Trading, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Eru Trading, Krasnensky Elevator Complex, Energo Zbut Trans.
Resources starting prices growth during the week. As a result, as of Friday average starting price of May resource in GTS was 8,89% higher than Monday indicator.
During the last week purchase positions were sold. In general 7390 th. c.m. of natural gas were sold. Thus, Energo Zbut Trans purchaed 190 th. c. m. of May resource in GTS with the price UAH 16000 per th. c.m., and Naftogas Trading – 7200 th.c.m. of April resource in UGS with positions prices in the range of UAH 16000-16008 th.c.m. excl. VAT.
At UEEX short-term natural gas market participants formed applications in GTS of Ukraine and UGS on intraday market. Last week compared to the previous there were no significant price changes. Weighet average price of short-term product on Friday, May 2, was UAH 15150 excl. VAT.
European market
EU prices of storage facilities continue to determine prices direction. Last week, on the meeting in Europe two possible changes were mentioned: decrease of price indicator from 90% to 85% or extension of the deadline of November 1, to the “window” between October 1 and December 1. Both scenarios will reduce pressure on the demand for gas to be injected into storage facilities, thereby reducing pressure on prices.
TTF premium to the NBP was £1.62/therm on the May 1 session, which encourages LNG supplies from the UK to Europe.
Four LNG cargos headed for Europe have changed course to Asia over the past 2 weeks after European prices fell below the Asian benchmark, opening up the possibility of arbitrage. Further diversions from the Atlantic to the Pacific will intensify competition between regions, despite Europe’s need to replenish gas storage facilities before winter. The growing premium of JKM over TTF has made supplies to Asia more profitable.
June futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on May 1 at USD 403,11 USD per th.c. m.
The futures contract for LNG delivered to Northwest Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed last Thursday at USD 367,85 per th. c. m.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 39,52%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 26,65%.
European LNG terminals operated on April 30 with an average capacity of 77,86%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of April 30, 2025 amounted to 5,227 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of April 25, 2025, was 2,041 bcf, which is 0,2% higher than the average for the last five years.
Contracts prices with delivery in respective period, EUR/MWh., 30.04.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,50 | 34,08 | 31,85 | 34,10 | 35,14 | 33,53 |
| M+1 | 33,20 | 34,69 | 32,34 | 34,67 | 32,86 | 33,55 |
| Q +1 | 33,51 | 34,99 | 32,63 | 35,19 | 32,97 | 33,86 |
| S +1 | 35,31 | 36,30 | 33,92 | 36,43 | 34,65 | 35,32 |
Month-ahead Contracts, at all analysed hubs had different trend in terms of spot prices – increase in price by an average of 0,13%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices in average at 1,05%. Prices season ahead with average value EUR 35,32 MWh had to be higher compared to spot prices in general at 5,42%.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 61,89 per barrel on May 2, 2025. USD/barrel after reports that China is considering the US proposal for Trump’s tariffs, indicating a possible easing of trade tensions.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came from Poland and Hungary. However, during April, imports were delivered to the “customs warehouse”, and since the beginning of May - exclusively in the import mode. The total volumes also changed in early May, with an increase of 3,6 mcm per day, from the initial volume of 8,6 mcm per day. The Hungarian direction was mainly used - 5,3 - 8,7 million cubic meters per day. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 5,6 billion cubic meters in storage. There was practically no withdrawal. Injection amounted to about 38 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Cabinet of Ministers has simplified the procedures for private oil and gas companies to equip energy storage facilities and build facilities for connection to the gas transportation system. This was announced by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during a government meeting on April 29, Ukrinform reports citing his Telegram. "Today we are making an important decision to accelerate domestic gas production. We are simplifying the procedures for the arrangement of energy storage facilities and the construction of facilities necessary for connection to the gas transmission system of Ukraine for private oil and gas companies as much as possible," he said.
Gas trading volumes on the EU brokerage markets increased by 13% year-on-year in the first three months of the year due to increased activity of the Dutch TTF hub, according to data from the London Energy Brokers Association (Leba) published on Friday. The total volume of gas trade in January-March amounted to 6628 TWh, compared to 5860 TWh in the first quarter of last year. TTF volumes increased by 20% to 4939 TWh, which easily offset a 2,2% drop at the German hub THE to 694 TWh. NBP volumes in the UK, excluding the EU category, increased by a quarter to 1130 TWh.