Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in April 2025 and May 2025 continued. In total, 4 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, D.Trading, GSC Naftogaz Trading, and MC Ukrnaftoburinnya.
The starting prices of resources decreased throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of May resources in the GTS was 4.14% lower than on Monday.
Last week, both sell and buy positions were realized. In total, 6050 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold with terms of delivery to the Ukrainian GTS. Of this amount, the GTS Operator of Ukraine purchased 5600 thousand cubic meters, and MC Ukrnaftoburinnya sold 450 thousand cubic meters of natural gas. Last week’s quoted prices were in the range of UAH 15300 - 15425 excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the GTS and UGS facilities. Last week, a slight increase in prices was recorded compared to the previous period. On Friday, April 11, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 15027.34 excluding VAT.
European market
Ongoing trade tensions continue to weigh on the energy sector. Although President Trump’s 90-day tariff grace period proved to be a short-term support, the renewed tariffs and retaliatory measures have again increased threats to global economic growth. In particular, weaker demand for industrial gas in Asia, which could limit LNG imports, increases the likelihood of supply buybacks in Europe and ultimately exacerbates downward pressure on prices in M+1. On the other hand, rising temperatures contributed to the downward trend.
The level of gas storage in the EU as of April 9 was 34.97%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 45%.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 10.04.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 34,62 | 36,01 | 33,25 | 37,63 | 38,18 | 35,94 |
| M+1 | 34,53 | 35,80 | 33,32 | 37,74 | 33,97 | 35,07 |
| Q +1 | 35,08 | 36,22 | 33,87 | 37,95 | 34,53 | 35,53 |
| S +1 | 36,12 | 36,8 | 34,51 | 41,13 | 35,72 | 36,86 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 2.28%. Quarter-ahead prices were 0.99% lower than spot prices on average. The season-ahead prices with an average value of EUR 36.86/MWh tended to increase by an average of 2.63% compared to the spot prices.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 77.87%.
As of April 8, 2025, LNG stocks in the EU amounted to 4.857 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of April 4, 2025, was 1.830 bcf, which is 2.1% below the average for the last five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on April 11, 2025 were declining and trading at USD 63.39/bbl. USD/barrel, but set for a second weekly drop of 2.1%, as escalating trade tensions between the US and China heighten concerns about global economic growth and oil demand.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports from Poland and Hungary averaged 3 million cubic meters per day, all to the “customs warehouse”. Exports from the “customs warehouse” were observed only to Moldova with an average volume of 1.7 million cubic meters per day. Ukraine had about 5.5 bcm in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 18 million cubic meters per day.
Public procurement
Last week, 7 tender procedures were held for the purchase of natural gas by budgetary institutions and state-owned enterprises. In total, 267,500.60 cubic meters of natural gas were sold at the largest tenders for the amount of UAH 4,177,042.18. The largest contract was awarded to GAZENERGO-TRADE, which will supply 125,000 cubic meters of natural gas to Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Economic University at an initial price of UAH 15.17 per cubic meter. The average price amounted to UAH 15.98 per cubic meter. Prices ranged from UAH 15.17 to UAH 16.52 per cubic meter, excluding VAT.
Interesting for the week
The success of accumulating the required volume of gas for the next heating season will depend on the availability of funds for this purpose at Naftogaz Group, resources on the European markets, and the capacity of interconnectors, said Yurii Boyko, Advisor to the Prime Minister of Ukraine. At the same time, he pointed out that the current gas balance makes it impossible to implement the strategy that was appropriate in previous years and involved purchasing gas in the three summer months when it is cheaper. Boyko emphasized that the price of gas will not be decisive in preparing for the new fall and winter period. “Given the current gas balance, these imports must be carried out on a regular basis, and the price factor is not the key one, because we must understand that in order to reach the planned accumulation targets, imports cannot be stopped even when we do not like the price or when we expect it to go down,” the Prime Minister’s advisor believes. He also noted that Ukraine will face a situation “when it will have to look overseas and work with liquefied natural gas from the United States.”