Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the past week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have been relatively stable with a downward trend. Trading activity increased compared to the previous period.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for August 2025, September 2025, and subsequent months. In total, four companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: LTK Electrum, GTS Operator of Ukraine, D.Trading, and Ukrzaliznytsia.
Resources starting prices in the “Medium- and Long-Term Market” section varied widely. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price for September resources in the GTS was 3,33% higher than on Monday. During the past week, only purchase positions were sold. A total of 20 700,00 cubic meters of natural gas was sold, 17700 of which was purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator. Last week’s auction participants formed the following quotation prices:
In the sections “Cross-border, customs warehouse” and “Imported natural gas,” the initiators formed starting positions, but no sales prices were formed in these sections during the past week.
On the short-term UEEX natural gas market participants submitted bids on the intraday market. Agreements were concluded with delivery to Ukraine’s gas transmission system. The weighted average price of natural gas on Friday, August 15, was UAH 20200 excluding VAT.
European market
Gas prices fell last week. TTF futures dropped to around €32/MWh. Gas reserves continue to grow, and geopolitical risks have not caused any new shocks in the short term. Some of the problems were offset by stable gas supplies from Norway and high LNG imports.
At the same time, the energy landscape was shaken by several strategic moves: Centrica and ECP (Energy Capital Partners) are buying Europe’s largest LNG terminal, Isle of Grain, for approximately €1.5 billion — this sent a clear signal to the market about long-term dependence on imported gas, even with falling demand for its use in the electricity sector. In addition, Centrica has signed an agreement with US-based Devon Energy to supply the equivalent of five LNG shipments annually for a decade — another foundation for Europe’s energy security.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 14.08.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,69 | 34,97 | 31,86 | 33,26 | 35,21 | 33,60 |
| M+1 | 33,12 | 35,28 | 32,18 | 34,98 | 35,15 | 34,14 |
| Q +1 | 34,58 | 35,64 | 33,28 | 37,44 | 34,75 | 35,14 |
| S +1 | 34,87 | 35,78 | 33,63 | 37,95 | 35,28 | 35,50 |
Month-ahead contracts on all analyzed hubs showed a different trend in spot prices, rising by an average of 1,64%. Quarterly prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 4,68%. Seasonal prices, with an average value of EUR 35,50/MWh, tended to increase by an average of 5,77% compared to spot prices.
The September LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 426,38 per thousand cubic meters on August 14. Futures for LNG supplied to Northwest Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 393,80 per thousand cubic meters.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 79,81% on August 13.
LNG stocks in the EU as of August 13, 2025, amounted to 4,336 million cubic meters, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data as of August 8, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 3,186 billion cubic feet, which is 6,6% higher than the average for the last five years.
Oil prices fell this week—for example, Brent is trading at around USD 66–67 per barrel. OPEC+ announced a significant increase in production (more than 500,000 barrels per day starting in September), and the imbalance between supply and demand is beginning to smooth out as the peak supply season gradually comes to an end.
The meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska is causing tension in the market. If sanctions against Russia are eased, prices could fall — even below USD 60. Conversely, if the opposite happens, the confrontation will intensify — prices could jump, approaching or even exceeding USD 80–90 per barrel.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 21 million cubic meters per day during the week (1 million cubic meters more than the previous week), coming from Hungary, Poland, Moldova, and Slovakia. Hungary was the main source, although the share of other sources remained high. There were about 10,4 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. Withdrawals were practically absent. Injections amounted to about 51 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting of the week
The first loan—EUR 500 million for gas imports to Ukraine—is being provided under the guarantee of the European Union under the program UIF Hi-Bar, which does not require a state guarantee from Ukraine, according to Gas United. UIF - Ukraine Investment Framework - is the investment component of the Ukraine Facility program for the restoration of, in particular, energy infrastructure. The financing was launched at URC-2024 in Berlin. The EBRD provided funds for gas imports through Hi-Bar, which aims to remove barriers to mobilizing the financing needed to accelerate the energy sector’s transition to net-zero, which involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible.