Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated, following European gas hubs tendencies.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week trades of August, September 2025 and subsequent months resources were lasting. In general 6 Companies formed positions for purchase and sale: SP BNK, Ukrzaliznytsia, Operator of the Gas Transmission System of Ukraine, Ltc Electrum, Euroexpotrade, IGK.
Starting prices of the resources in the midle-and longterm market varied dinamicly during the week. For example, as a result, as of Friday, August resource starting price in GTS was was lower than Monday indicator for 15,89%.
Purchase positions were sold during last week. In general, 7000 th. c.m. of natural gas were sold. Vast majority of volumes -4000 th. c.m. was bought by GTS Operator of Ukraine. 3 mln c.m. were purchased by Ukrzaliznytsya. Participants formed quoting prices, presented on the graht below. Rapid decline tendency were formed.
In the sections “Cross-border, customs warehouse” and “Imported natural gas,” the initiators formed starting positions, but no sales prices were formed in these sections during the past week.
At UEEX natural gas short-term market participants formed applications at intraday market. The weighted average price of short-term product on Friday, August 22, was UAH 18700 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, optimism about a possible end to Russia’s war in Ukraine raised expectations of an easing of sanctions and an increase in global supply. Although the summit ended without a formal agreement, signs of progress helped ease supply concerns. Any developments could quickly reevaluate the risks in energy markets, but for now, some markets are reaching their lowest prices, with UK wholesale energy markets holding near multi-month lows: gas prices have fallen to their lowest level since April 2024 at 2,83 pence/kWh.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 21.08.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,91 | 36,21 | 33,15 | 36,19 | 35,79 | 35,05 |
| M+1 | 34,07 | 36,27 | 33,12 | 35,65 | 36,02 | 35,03 |
| Q +1 | 35,22 | 36,14 | 34,02 | 37,56 | 35,38 | 35,66 |
| S +1 | 35,46 | 36,43 | 34,23 | 36,97 | 35,75 | 35,77 |
Month-ahead contracts on all analyzed hubs showed a different trend in spot prices, falling by an average of 0,06%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 1,79%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of EUR 35,77/MWh, were higher than spot prices by an average of 2,10%.
Factors negatively affecting the market include the overall weakness of the European economy and new trade tariffs (a 15% US tariff on a range of European goods since August), which threaten export-oriented industries, and new Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure.
Hurricane Erin, with sustained winds of up to 145 km/h, severely disrupted shipping lanes in the Atlantic, delaying LNG supplies from the US, and two other storms are forecast to follow the same pattern as Erin towards the end of the month. Delays in LNG deliveries will lead to a slowdown in gas injection into storage facilities before winter, increasing the risk premium for the end of winter with depleted gas storage facilities.
EU gas storage facilities continue to fill up rapidly and are currently 74,76% full, with weekly inflows averaging more than 2%, helping to ease concerns about supplies ahead of winter. By comparison, on the same date in 2024, EU storage facilities were nearly 88% full.
Norwegian imports fell by 4 million cubic meters per day to 55 million cubic meters per day due to maintenance work. Gas supply disruptions at major fields, including Troll, Asgard, and Ormen Lange, will continue this month and next. Other pipeline supplies remained relatively stable: transit through the Turkish Stream to the Balkans was steady, and gas exports from Algeria to Italy and Spain fluctuated only slightly due to minor repairs. North Africa continues to reliably cover part of Southern Europe’s needs, although volumes from there are below previous years’ levels due to competition from LNG.
Strong demand for cooling in Asia pushed up gas prices on Wednesday amid intensifying global competition for LNG. The Asian market maintained a slight premium over the European market, which supports competition for LNG supplies in the global market. The October LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 409,55 per thousand cubic meters on August 21. Futures for LNG supplied to Northwest Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 386,28/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 79,78% on August 20.
LNG stocks in the EU as of August 20, 2025, amounted to 4,550 million cubic meters, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data as of August 15, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the US, was 3,199 billion cubic feet (≈90.6 billion m³), which is 5,8% higher than the average for the last five years.
On the adjacent market on August 22, Brent crude oil traded at USD 67,74 per barrel as US inventories fell by 6 million barrels last week, significantly higher than the expected decline of 1,8 million barrels, according to EIA data.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 21,5 million cubic meters per day during the week (0,5 million cubic meters more than the previous week), coming from Hungary, Poland, Moldova, and Slovakia. Hungary was the main source, although the share of other sources remains high. There were about 10,7 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. Withdrawals were practically absent. Injections amounted to about 49 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Ukraine continues to develop new import routes. The operator of the Greece-Bulgaria interconnector ICGB has announced its readiness to launch new joint capacity booking routes from Greece to Ukraine – Route 2 (from the Alexandroupolis LNG terminal) and Route 3 (from the TAP gas pipeline). Bookings will be available on a monthly basis with access to the Ukrainian gas transmission system. At the same time, the launch of new routes requires approval from the regulators of the countries through which the route passes, namely Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, and Ukraine.
According to the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), in July 2025, LNG imports to Europe increased by 43% year-on-year, reaching 9,08 million tons. GECF noted that this increase of 2,75 million tons was due to growing demand for gas storage and a reduction in pipeline gas imports. The largest increase in LNG imports was observed in the Netherlands, followed by France, Italy, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom, which together compensated for the decline in imports to Turkey. The structure of LNG suppliers to Europe currently favors the United States and Qatar.
On August 15, British Centrica (owner of British Gas) announced an agreement with US-based Devon Energy: Starting in 2028, Centrica will purchase 50,000 MMBtu/day of natural gas (equivalent to ~5 LNG shipments per year) under a ten-year contract indexed to TTF prices. In general, a number of agreements were concluded in the summer: for example, Italy’s ENI signed a 20-year contract with Venture Global (USA) for 2 million tons/year of LNG from the end of the decade, and Germany’s SEFE signed a three-year agreement to supply 0,7 million tons/year of LNG from ADNOC (UAE) starting this summer. All these steps are part of Europe’s strategy to replace lost Russian gas with stable supplies from friendly countries.