Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the last two weeks, natural gas prices in Ukraine have fluctuated, reflecting trends in European hubs and general seasonal changes.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
The past two weeks saw trading in resources for August, September, and October 2025. In total, 10 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Ukraine’s GTS Operator, BNK Joint Venture, Ukrzaliznytsia, Ltk Elektrum, Tviy Gaz, Energycenter, Energiegaztrade, Gas Industry, Energo Zbut Trans, and IGK.
Starting prices for resources on the “Medium- and Long-Term Market” section showed mixed dynamics. Depending on the type of position (purchase or sale), initiators set different price levels, reflecting their own vision of the market and the current dynamics of supply and demand. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of September resources in the GTS was 11.9% higher than on Monday, August 24. During the past week, purchase positions were sold. In total, 4,650 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold in the section. Of these, the GTS Operator purchased 4,000 thousand cubic meters of natural gas for delivery to the GTS and UGS.
Over the past two weeks, auction participants have set the following quoted prices:
Starting positions were formed in the sections “Cross-border, customs warehouse” and “Imported natural gas.” Natural gas sales at border points were successful. In total, 122,760 MWh (or about 11,470 thousand cubic meters) of natural gas were sold in the “Cross-border, customs warehouse” section, with delivery in October and at prices ranging from EUR 36.35 to EUR 38.40/MWh. No sales prices were formed in the “Imported natural gas” section.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants mainly placed bids on the intraday market in the GTS. A total of 526,000 cubic meters of natural gas was sold and 28 deals were concluded. The weighted average price of natural gas on Friday, September 5, was UAH 19,140 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, the closure and opening of gas markets was accompanied by relatively subdued price movements, which were also observed throughout August, with few dominant fundamental factors. The limited potential for decline is indicated by disruptions in LNG supplies, reduced deliveries from Norway, and reduced availability of nuclear energy due to strikes in France.
The latest forecast does not expect any former hurricanes to cross the Atlantic, which means that the risk of disruption to any LNG shipments from US ports is low.
Day-ahead and month-ahead gas contracts in the UK rose during the September 4 session after a revision of Norwegian pipeline outages increased peak unavailability by 21% on September 11. As a result, the NBP spot price rose 2.4% to 79.65 pence per therm. The price for a contract for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024 rose 0.8% to 83.89 pence per therm.
EU gas storage facilities continue to grow rapidly and are currently 78.51% full. Pan-European storage facilities continue to steadily increase their capacity ahead of winter. Given that gas stocks in the EU are below the five-year average, achieving winter storage targets may be at risk.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 04.09.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,44 | 34,45 | 31,92 | 37,20 | 34,28 | 34,06 |
| M+1 | 33,33 | 34,69 | 32,42 | 36,84 | 34,42 | 34,34 |
| Q +1 | 34,22 | 35,04 | 33,08 | 38,16 | 34,78 | 35,06 |
| S +1 | 35,06 | 35,25 | 33,31 | 36,60 | 35,23 | 34,96 |
Contracts for the month ahead showed different trends in spot prices on all analyzed hubs, with an average increase of 0.89%. Prices for the quarter ahead were higher than spot prices by an average of 2.98%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of EUR 34.96/MWh, tended to increase by an average of 2.79% compared to spot prices.
Norwegian imports are affected by extensive maintenance work on Norwegian fields, which will continue until September 18, limiting supplies to the UK and continental Europe. This coincides with a period of low wind power, which has allowed gas generation to remain high. The October LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 402.57 per thousand cubic meters on September 4. Futures for LNG supplied to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 375.54/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 81.26% on September 3. Only 23 deliveries are planned for northwestern Europe in September. At the same time, cargoes from the US and Qatar are increasingly heading east to Asia.
LNG stocks in the EU as of September 3, 2025, amounted to 4.964 million cubic meters, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data as of August 29, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the US, was 3.272 billion cubic feet, which is 5.6% higher than the average for the last five years.
On the adjacent market on September 5, Brent crude oil traded at USD 66.93 per barrel amid potential excess production by OPEC countries.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 22 million cubic meters per day, increasing since the beginning of September. Imports came from all four countries on the western border. There were no flows from Moldova to Ukraine in the first week of September. Imports were mainly from Hungary and Slovakia. There were no exports, except for 0.9 million cubic meters of biomethane, which was exported to Poland at the end of August. There were about 11.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection amounted to about 55 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
In August 2025, the US exported 9.33 million tons (12.9 billion cubic meters) of LNG, setting a new historical high. The previous record was set in April this year at 9.25 million tons (12.8 billion cubic meters). The growth was due to the launch of production at the Plaquemines terminal in Louisiana. In August, it accounted for 1.6 million tons (2.2 billion cubic meters) or 17% of total LNG exports from the US. The operator plans to commission all 18 processing units of the complex by September, according to Expro.
Norwegian Minister of Energy Terje Oslund expressed satisfaction with the high level of interest and confidence in further exploration opportunities, noting that this will help Norway remain a stable and reliable supplier of oil and gas to Europe. Twenty oil and gas companies have submitted applications for exploration licenses in this year’s annual licensing round for mature areas (APA). This round includes additional areas in the Arctic part of the Barents Sea, which is in line with Norway’s strategy to extend the life of its oil industry. The number of applications matches last year’s APA round, in which 20 companies were awarded blocks. Applicants include Equinor, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, and TotalEnergies.
German gas system operator Gasunie Deutschland is to build a hydrogen pipeline to the Danish border, with both gas system operators hoping to reach an agreement, expected to be concluded in 2028, on the joint construction of pipelines to facilitate hydrogen exports to Germany. In addition, the Danish utility regulator must subsequently approve the pricing of the gas pipeline, which will be transferred from Energinet Gastransmission to Energinet Hydrogen. Energinet’s plan includes 45 km of new underground pipelines from Esbjerg, bringing the total length of the pipeline to 133 km, which has been named “number 7” because of its shape on the map. The estimated total cost of construction is DKK 6.9 billion (in 2025 prices), and the socio-economic effect projected for the next 30 years will be DKK 6.4 billion. A loan of DKK 7.4 billion (USD 1.2 billion) and an operating subsidy of up to DKK 8.3 billion (USD 1.3 billion) for the construction of the pipeline were approved on condition that the producers commit to exporting at least 0.5 GW to Germany starting in 2030.