Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week natural gas prices in Ukraine had a slight downward trend, following to European hubs tendencies.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in the resource for August, September 2025 and the following months continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 3 companies: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LTK Electrum, Ukrzaliznytsia.
The starting prices of resources had diverse dynamics. Starting prices in the section "Medium and long-term market" were at different levels depending on the direction of the position - for purchase or sale.
During the past week, exclusively purchase positions were sold. In total, 11,500 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Vast majority (8,5 million cubic meters) was purchased by the GTS Operator of Ukraine with delivery in August and September.
In the sections "Cross-border, customs warehouse" and "Imported natural gas", the initiators formed starting positions, but no sales prices were formed in these sections during the past week.
On the short-term natural gas market, UEEX participants formed orders on the intraday market. No exchange rates were formed during the week. The weighted average price of the short-term product on Friday, August 8, was UAH 20800 excluding VAT and remained unchanged during the week.
European market
Gas prices have been hovering near 2025 lows since early August, but the downtrend is showing signs of exhaustion. Technical resistance, combined with rising geopolitical and production risks, is starting to change sentiment. While any Russian-related action is unlikely to have a direct impact on European gas balances, traders are wary of any threats to global supplies.
Last week, significant supplies from Norway of over 300 million cubic meters put pressure on gas prices, combined with an expected increase in French nuclear generation, which is reducing gas demand. Heatwaves across Europe remain a partial risk, with hotter weather expected next week. This increases reliance on gas-fired power generation, which in turn requires storage and increases gas demand. If extreme weather conditions persist until the end of the summer, this trend could become a key driver of price increases.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh., 07.08.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,19 | 35,89 | 32,27 | 36,61 | 35,94 | 34,78 |
| M+1 | 34,07 | 35,96 | 32,95 | 36,16 | 35,72 | 34,97 |
| Q +1 | 35,44 | 36,14 | 34,14 | 38,53 | 35,57 | 35,96 |
| S +1 | 35,66 | 36,47 | 34,44 | 38,99 | 36,1 | 36,33 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices – an increase of 0,62% on average. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by 3,50% on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 36,33 EUR/MWh had a tendency to increase compared to spot prices by 4,55% on average.
September LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 427,45 per thousand cubic meters on August 7. Futures for LNG delivered to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 396,13 per thousand cubic meters.
European gas storage facilities dominate the local and regional supply structure. Gas injection rates remain high, with weekly rates exceeding 2% and monthly rates around 10%. Earlier this week, another milestone was reached: gas storage levels now exceed 70%. This represents a significant recovery compared to the start of summer, but still lags behind the 80% average seen in recent years. German gas operator SEFE has reserved 3TWh of storage capacity at its Rehden facility, signaling active preparations for the heating season. Countries are confident that they will enter the winter season with good reserves, with the only question remaining as to whether future outages at Norwegian gas fields will continue.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating at an average capacity of 79,8% on August 6. Europe continues to receive significant volumes of Russian gas through its LNG partners. The introduction of an energy-inclusive tariff for Russia’s trading partners would increase the cost of importing Russian LNG, which would support prices in the European market. Markets are therefore closely watching Washington, and a decision is expected soon.
LNG reserves in the EU as of August 6, 2025 were 4,664 million cubic meters, according to data of Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
The largest LNG exporter, the United States, had storage capacity of 3,130 billion cubic feet as of August 1, 2025, according to the latest EIA data, up 5,9% from the five-year average.
In the related market, uncertainty surrounding possible US sanctions against Russia has pushed crude oil prices to an eight-week low. Comments by President Trump, who highlighted the “significant progress” his envoy has made in talks with President Putin, have raised doubts about the scope of future sanctions. Brent crude was trading at USD 66,80 a barrel on the morning of August 8.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction during the week averaged 20 million cubic meters per day (7 million cubic meters less than the previous week), from Hungary, Poland, Moldova and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used, although recently the share of other directions has remained high. There were about 10 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. Withdrawals were practically non-existent. Injections amounted to more than 50 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Germany to abolish gas tax. The government has approved a bill to abolish the gas storage fee, which was designed to offset the increased costs of gas supplies after the suspension of Russian pipeline supplies. All gas consumers, including households, paid this additional fee to support gas importers who have been hit by the shortage of Russian gas and high prices for alternative gas sources. The government now plans to abolish the gas fee, estimating total savings of USD 3,9 billion, or up to USD 70 per household per year. In addition, companies had booked 70% of Germany’s gas storage capacity by early July, giving the country more time to prepare for winter. This year, the EU relaxed rules by setting more flexible targets for filling gas storage, allaying concerns among gas-consuming countries about the financial burden of filling storage when it is not profitable to do so.
Enwell Energy, on behalf of which the representative office of Regal Petroleum Corporation Limited operates in Ukraine, has sent a letter to the SSU requesting the resumption of gas production at fields in the Poltava region. To do this, it is necessary to submit a decision for consideration by the Interdepartmental Working Group and initiate changes to paragraph 6 of the NSDCU decision of October 8, 2024. “This will allow the activities of enterprises to be unblocked, while maintaining the restrictions on sanctioned persons in full,” the company emphasized. The next step should be a corrective decision by the NSDCU, which will allow the restoration of natural gas production in preparation for the heating season.