Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview December 1-5, 2025

On the UEEX on the “Medium and Long-term Market” section, 1.5 million cubic meters of gas were sold at prices of UAH 19,817–20,279/thousand cubic meters (excluding VAT), and the GTS Operator purchased 35.9 million cubic meters in the “Cross-border” section; 1.65 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold on the short-term market.

In Europe, prices remained below EUR 30/MWh on the back of high supply levels and warm weather, storage occupancy fell to 73.85%. Gas imports to Ukraine fell to 21 million cubic meters per day, and UGS reserves fell to 12.9 billion cubic meters.

In the "Medium and Long-Term Market" section of the UEEX, trading in the December 2025 resource continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 3 companies: Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnia, LTK Electrum. The section sold 1.5 million cubic meters of natural gas. Natural gas with delivery to the GTS in December was mainly sold. The prices of sold items were in the range of 19817.5-20278.57 UAH/thousand cubic meters excluding VAT, which is lower than last week.

The GTS Operator of Ukraine also conducted purchases in the "Cross-border" and "Customs Warehouse" sections. About 35.29 million cubic meters of natural gas were purchased with transmission at a point on the border at prices in the range of 35.80-36.55 EUR/MWh.

On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants formed orders on the intraday market and the day-ahead market. In total, 29 deals were concluded with a total volume of 1,655 thousand cubic meters.
Overall, activity on the UEEX in the first week of December was relatively low - the volume of sales decreased by 22.2% compared to the previous week.

Last week, high supply levels in Europe and forecasts of milder temperatures in the first half of December also helped keep prices below EUR 30/MWh. The weekly average price level of DA TTF fell by 4.1%. European gas storage utilization fell to 73.85% as of December 3, although a weak demand forecast and mild temperatures across North-West Europe could lead to a slowdown in gas withdrawals over the coming week. While LNG imports were low this week, the schedule of cargo arrivals next week suggests an increase in imports, reducing pressure on European storage. If current conditions persist, cargoes for the Atlantic Basin will remain readily available into the first quarter of 2026. As storage fill levels fell below 75%, some Sum-26 contracts rose, although mild weather was expected to limit demand. Also, a slight downward revision in temperature forecasts towards the middle of the month could add some bullish sentiment to the one-month contract as the temperature drop could continue into January.
The UK day-ahead NBP contract is trading at a growing discount to the Dutch TTF, driving increased exports via the IUK interconnector, with increased exports expected over the first weekend of December and next week.
Summing up November, we see that Front Month TTF gas futures and Brent recorded their lowest monthly averages in recent months. Negotiations to reach a peace agreement for Ukraine put downward pressure on TTF gas futures prices for most of November. Europe’s resilience to various unexpected shocks this winter may provide some confidence that supply risks remain manageable, limiting optimistic reactions. russia has warned that it may attack vessels from countries supporting Ukraine if attacks on its tankers continue.

Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 21 million cubic meters per day (-11.6%). Imports were present from all neighboring European countries. The basis of imports was the Hungarian and Polish directions. Exports from the customs warehouse to Moldova were absent. In the storage facilities of Ukraine there were about 12.9 billion cubic meters of natural gas (-0.7%). The withdrawal was from up to 20 million cubic meters per day.