Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have been fluctuating slightly, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in December 2024, January 2025, February 2025, and March 2025 continued. In total, 8 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Energigaztrade, National Resources of Ukraine, D.Trading, Ukrnafta, GSC Oil and Gas Trading, Ukrtransgaz, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, and Gasservice Trade.
The starting prices of resources had a mixed trend throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of January resources in the GTS was 2.37% lower than on Monday.
Last week, the purchase positions were sold. In total, 33,252.00 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. This volume was purchased by Ukrtransgaz under its own positions for delivery in January-March 2025 in the new section “Purchases of imported natural gas”. The purchase prices ranged from UAH 25821.43 to UAH 26741.19 excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the GTS and UGS facilities. No price changes were recorded last week compared to the previous period. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, January 3, amounted to UAH 16700 excluding VAT.
European market
The cessation of natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe via Ukraine due to the expiration of the agreement between the two countries on January 1, as the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine ended at 7 a.m., as well as the reduction of gas reserves in the European Union, which, according to GIE (Gas Infrastructure Europe), are already at 71.8% with the onset of winter, continued to put upward pressure on gas prices. The remaining buyers of Russian gas to the EU via Ukraine, such as Slovakia and Austria, have organized alternative supplies, while Hungary will continue to receive Russian gas via the Turkish Stream pipeline under the Black Sea. But Transnistria, a pro-Russian region of Ukraine’s neighboring Moldova that also depends on transit flows, cut off heating and hot water to households early Wednesday morning.
European carbon prices rose by 3% on Thursday, hitting a 10-month high, as market activity recovered and participants felt the growing impact of gas prices.
Currently, there are reverse flows from Germany to Eastern Europe, which strengthens Western European gas markets.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 02.01.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 50,75 | 51,11 | 49,99 | 49,99 | 48,89 | 50,82 |
| M+1 | 51,39 | 51,41 | 50,33 | 53,30 | 51,01 | 51,49 |
| Q +1 | 50,57 | 51,25 | 49,49 | 51,41 | 48,84 | 50,31 |
| S +1 | 50,35 | 51,05 | 49,29 | 51,06 | 48,53 | 50,06 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend in relation to spot prices, with an average increase of 1.36%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by 0.96% on average. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 50.06 EUR/MWh tended to decrease compared to the spot prices by an average of 1.46%.
With the start of the new year, TTF DA prices on the ICE market continued the upward trend of the previous week.
UK short-term gas prices rose on Thursday, driven by falling temperatures and weaker wind power generation. As a result, the NBP spot price closed 2% higher at 124.50 p/therm. On the longer-term front, the NBP Sum-2025 contract also gained 2%, settling at 119.66 p/therm amid a halt in Russian gas transit and a shutdown at the Norwegian LNG plant in Hammerfest.
The February futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on December 26 at $514.8. US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 507.47 per thousand cubic meters.
The EU gas storage level was 71.8% as of January 1, 2025, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 78.39%.
LNG reserves in the EU as of January 1, 2025 amounted to 3.603 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
The storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of December 27, 2024, was 3.413 billion cubic feet.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on January 2, 2025, rose again to 76.36 USD/bbl at the opening after closing at the highest level in the last two months in a row, based on optimism about China’s economic growth, as well as data showing that US oil inventories have declined.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came only from Hungary, averaging 1.025 mcm per day, while exports from the customs warehouse averaged 1.125 mcm per day to Poland, Slovakia and Moldova. Ukraine had about 9.6 billion cubic meters in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 42 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Gross natural gas production in Ukraine amounted to 19.12 bcm in 2024, according to ExPro. Compared to last year, gas production increased by 2.2%, from 18.7 to 19.12 billion cubic meters. Natural gas production in Ukraine is growing despite the full-scale war that has been going on for almost three years. This year’s production growth rate is higher than last year, when production grew by 0.9%. Moreover, this is the highest production growth since 2018. As a reminder, gas production volumes were declining from 2019 to 2022. State-owned companies will remain the main driver of the increase in natural gas production in Ukraine in 2024, while private companies are still showing a decline in production. Nevertheless, in the second half of the year, private companies’ production also increased compared to the previous year.