Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated, following European gas hubs trends.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, February 2025 and March 2025 resources trading were ongoing. In total, 12 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Nadra-Geoinvest, National Resources of Ukraine, PPC Naftogaz Trading, D.Trading, Ukrtransgaz, Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, Centrenergi, etc.
Resources srarting prices were decreased during the week. As the result, as of Friday average starting price of the March resource in GTS was lower than Monday indicator at 4,75%.
During the last week, sales and purchase positions were sold. In general 38 480,00 th. c.m. of natural gas were sold. Of which 23,7 mln. c. m. were purchased by Ukrtransgas in separate section “Imported natural gas purchases”. Purchased volume at the trades should be delivered into the UGS during February – early March. Ukrtransgas managed to to buy resource of February 19. Prices of sold positions were in the range of 31015-31042 UAH per t. c.m. excl. VAT.
In addition, the positions of Ukrnafta, Energo Zbut Trans, Centrenergo, and Ukrzaliznytsia were successful and formed the following quoted prices:
Quotation prices in the section “Natural gas: medium and long-term market”
| Date | Resource | Payment terms | Payment terms | Volume | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17.02.2025 | February 2025 | Postpayment | GTS | 1470,00 | 17988,00 |
| 17.02.2025 | March 2025 | Prepayment | GTS | 3200,00 | 18333,35 |
| 17.02.2025 | March 2025 | Postpayment | GTS | 50,00 | 18833,33 |
| 18.02.2025 | February 2025 | Postpayment | GTS | 60,00 | 18000,00 |
| 19.02.2025 | February 2025 | Postpayment | UGS | 10000,00 | 10000,00 |
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed applications to the GTS and UGS facilities. Last week, compared to the previous period, diverse price movements and stable trading activity were recorded. During February 17-21, 579 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. On Friday, February 21, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 17800 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, gas prices continued their downward trend after a slight rise on Tuesday’s session. Geopolitical uncertainty followed market sentiment as markets watched the negotiations between the US and russia over the russian-Ukrainian war and possible diplomatic changes and concerns about Europe’s position in the negotiations.
The forecast of warmer temperatures for the latter part of February eases pressure on EU gas storage levels. The decline in demand followed a draft EU proposal to extend gas storage rules and introduce flexible replenishment targets. The EU Commission is reviewing gas storage rules to introduce more flexibility in replenishment plans, as the spread between the summer-2025 and winter-2025 seasons remains too narrow to encourage injections into storage. The Commission will publish a formal proposal by the end of March to extend the targets beyond 2025, when they expire, according to a draft EU document, potentially shaping market trends in the coming weeks.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh., 20.02.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 48,62 | 49,99 | 47,13 | 57,18 | 52,30 | 51,04 |
| M+1 | 48,45 | 49,01 | 47,58 | 53,04 | 49,30 | 49,48 |
| Q +1 | 48,67 | 49,1 | 47,73 | 51,72 | 48,24 | 49,09 |
| S +1 | 48,68 | 49,09 | 47,77 | 50,04 | 48,49 | 48,81 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 2,87%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 3,54%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 48,81 EUR/MWh tended to decrease compared to the spot prices by an average of 4,02%.
The NBP and TTF spread widened and the DA discount increased from the previous session from 2 pence per term to 3 pence per term, further encouraging UK gas exports to the continent and directing more LNG supplies to European terminals. Even with the decline in Norwegian flows from Langeled and Westerled, UK short-term gas prices on Thursday fell by almost 1% compared to the previous session, closing at £112,50/term amid expectations of 3 more LNG cargoes for February 2025, bringing the total to 28, which is 105% more than in February 2024. The NBP Summer-2025 contract fell by 1,3% to close at £123.63/therm, driven by steady supply growth and higher LNG export capacity from Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility.
On February 20, the April futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 510,15 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 511,76 per thousand cubic meters.
The EU gas storage level was 41,9%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 78,449%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of February 19, 2025 amounted to 3,859 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of February 14, 2025, was 2,101 billion cubic feet, which is 5,3% below the average for the last five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 73,30 per barrel on February 21, 2025. Despite threats of supply disruptions from russia and expectations of higher demand in the US and China following seasonal refinery maintenance and increased industrial activity, Brent prices were at USD 73,30/barrel on 21 May 2015.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia with an average volume of 24,83 mln. c.m. per day, including receipts in the customs warehouse. Exports from the customs warehouse were observed to Moldova and Hungary with an average volume of 4,18 mcm per day. Ukraine had about 6,8 bcm in storage facilities. Withdrawal amounted to about 68 million cubic meters per day. Storage facilities remain empty at the end of this heating season.
Interesting for the week
The European Commission is working on stricter controls of the gas market to avoid speculative trading that causes price spikes, and next week will propose financial instruments designed to decouple retail electricity prices from high gas prices. The EU’s electricity market rules mean that despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy in Europe, the price of gas continues to set the price of electricity paid by many European consumers.
According to EU law, European gas contracts must expire by 2049 to meet the bloc’s climate change goal of net zero emissions by 2050. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said Brussels is preparing changes to permitting rules to speed up the construction of renewable energy sources. He said that for industries and home heating, where gas cannot be quickly replaced by electricity, the EU is stepping up efforts to find alternative sources of supply.