Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in January, February, and March 2025 continued. In total, 9 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Energigaztrade, D.Trading, National Resources of Ukraine, Ukrnafta, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Ukrtransgaz, Teplobud, VC Ukrnaftoburinnya, and Gasservice Trade.
The starting prices of resources had a mixed trend throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of February resources in the GTS was 8.67% lower than on Monday.
Last week, the purchase positions were sold. In total, 14220 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold, all of which was purchased by Ukrtransgaz in the new section “Purchases of imported natural gas”. The volume purchased at the auction is to be delivered to the UGS facilities during February and the first half of March.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants formed bids in the GTS and UGS. No significant price changes were recorded last week compared to the previous period. The weighted average price of the SSP on Friday, January 10, amounted to UAH 16,855 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, the reduction in gas supplies due to the shutdown of the Norwegian Kollsnes facility and insufficient supply to the system caused concern in the market. The Norwegian LNG plant in Hammerfest will continue repair work until January 19.
A number of European countries, including Slovakia and Hungary, have been urging the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, but the Ukrainian side remains adamant that it will not allow any gas to transit through its territory if it is financially beneficial to Russia. The Turkish Stream route to Europe is the only pipeline connection for Russian gas to European markets. According to preliminary data from the Turkish Anadolu Agency, in January-December, supplies through the Turkish Stream to Europe increased by about 23% year-on-year to 16.7 billion cubic meters. Russian gas supplies through Ukraine reached 15.4 billion cubic meters in 2024.
The current price ceiling in the EU, which has been in effect since February 2023, expires at the end of January. It remains to be seen whether the European Commission will propose to extend the mechanism again before it expires at the end of this month.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, January 10, 2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 45,99 | 46,03 | 45,29 | 48,51 | 45,66 | 46,30 |
| M+1 | 45,92 | 46,26 | 44,97 | 47,96 | 45,83 | 46,19 |
| Q +1 | 46,09 | 46,65 | 45,18 | 47,02 | 44,75 | 45,94 |
| S +1 | 46,09 | 46,71 | 45,17 | 46,66 | 44,71 | 45,87 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0.23%. Quarter-ahead prices were 0.75% lower than spot prices on average. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 45.87 EUR/MWh tended to decrease compared to the spot prices by an average of 0.89%.
Last Thursday, the NBP’s premium to TTF narrowed to 4.4 p/term, down from 5.0 p/term on Wednesday. On January 9, UK short-term gas prices fell by almost 1% compared to the previous day, closing at 116.00 p/therm, as the UK secured additional LNG supplies. Forward gas prices were slightly bearish against the backdrop of regular supply, with NBP Sum-2025 down 0.6% to 110 p/therm.
By contrast, forward prices in Europe were supported by higher-than-average storage depletion in Europe.
The February futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on January 9 at USD 508 per thousand cubic meters.
The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 488.85 per thousand cubic meters.
The EU’s gas storage level stood at 68.24% as of January 8, 2025, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory, a 32% drop from the 35.9 TWh observed at the start of the heating season on October 1, 2024.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 77.66%. Europe’s regasification capacity is expected to continue to grow with the addition of a new Italian FSRU in the second quarter of 2025. Total imports are forecast to reach around 28 bcm per year in 2025.
As of January 8, 2025, LNG reserves in the EU amounted to 4.744 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
The storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of January 3, 2025, was 3.373 billion cubic feet.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices rose again on January 9, 2025, to USD 78.77 per USD/barrel, up 1% from the previous day.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came only from Hungary, averaging 1.9 million cubic meters per day, while exports were virtually non-existent. Ukraine had about 9.2 billion cubic meters in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 39 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Ukrainian producers have already pumped 1 million cubic meters of biomethane into underground gas storage facilities, said Georgiy Geletukha, chairman of the board of the Bioenergy Association of Ukraine. Two companies pump biomethane into underground storage facilities: Vitagro and Gals Agro. According to him, there are no exports of biomethane yet, as potential European buyers want larger volumes, so “companies accumulate volumes in UGS facilities, and as soon as a certain level is reached, they will export it.” According to ExPro estimates, Vitagro has accumulated almost 0.8 million cubic meters of natural gas in Ukrainian underground storage facilities, and Hals Agro has accumulated more than 0.2 million cubic meters.