Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have been subject to diverse fluctuations, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in January, February, and March 2025 continued. In total, 7 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: D.Trading, National Resources of Ukraine, Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Ukrtransgaz, and Energygaztrade.
Starting prices of resources showed mixed dynamics throughout the week, depending on the direction (buying or selling) and other parameters of the position. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of February resources in the GTS was 5.61% higher than on Monday.
Last week, the Naftogaz sold its buy positions. In total, 37920 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. The entire volume was purchased by Ukrtransgaz in the new section “Purchases of imported natural gas”. The volume purchased at the auction is to be delivered to the UGS facilities during February and the first half of March.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the GTS and UGS facilities. No price changes were recorded last week compared to the previous period. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, January 17, amounted to UAH 16,855 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, gas markets were in anticipation of key global economic data releases and while prices remained favorable, there was uncertainty about the impact of the latest news releases. The anticipation of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas looked promising and there is now confirmation of a ceasefire in Israel, but sanctions on Russian tankers, both oil and LNG, continue.
NBP’s DA premium to TTF increased from the previous trading day’s £3.02/therm to £3.64/therm. British gas prices fell last Thursday amid improving weather conditions and increased wind power generation. The spot price of NBP fell by 0.6% to £118.80/therm. In addition, the easing of geopolitical fears following the ceasefire in the Middle East affected forward contracts: the NBP Sum-2025 forward contract fell by 1.2% to £114.13/term.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 01/16/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 47,57 | 48,58 | 46,83 | 49,96 | 46,66 | 47,92 |
| M+1 | 47,1 | 47,42 | 46,22 | 49,56 | 45,80 | 47,22 |
| Q +1 | 47,2 | 47,74 | 46,41 | 48,76 | 46,19 | 47,26 |
| S +1 | 47,26 | 47,82 | 46,44 | 49,19 | 46,09 | 47,36 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs had a different direction relative to spot prices, with an average decrease of 1.46%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1.36%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 47.36 euros/MWh tended to decrease by an average of 1.16% compared to spot prices.
The February futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on January 16 at USD 505.82 per thousand cubic meters. US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
The LNG North West Europe Marker futures for LNG delivered to Northwest Europe closed last Thursday at USD 491.68 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 63.34% as of January 15, 2025, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 77.2%. Last month, Northwest Europe (Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany) received 21 Russian LNG cargoes, accounting for about 30% of the total, and this month so far, a total of 14 Russian LNG cargoes have arrived. Given that russian LNG cargoes are under sanctions and cannot dock in Northwest Europe, this may support prices until the end of this month.
LNG reserves in the EU as of January 15, 2025 amounted to 4.270 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
The storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data, was 3.115 billion cubic feet as of January 10, 2025.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices rose again to USD 81.18 per barrel on January 16, 2025. USD/barrel, driven by potential supply disruptions due to sanctions against Russian tankers and US oil stocks that fell more than expected. The market does not know how much russian supply will be lost on the global market and whether alternative measures will be able to compensate for the deficit.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came only from Hungary, averaging 1.3 mcm per day, and exports were observed only to Moldova, with a maximum of 0.2 mcm per day. Ukraine had about 8.9 bcm in storage. Withdrawals amounted to about 47 mcm per day.
Public procurements
Last week, four tender procedures were held for the purchase of natural gas by budgetary institutions. In total, 139,534.44 cubic meters of natural gas were sold for UAH 2,360,346.83. The largest contract was awarded to GAZENERGO-TRADE, the company will supply 88,861.00 cubic meters of natural gas to the Department of Education, Culture, Youth and Sports of the Pidhorodnya Village Council at an initial price of UAH 16.93 per cubic meter. The average price amounted to UAH 16.88 per cubic meter. Prices ranged from UAH 16.82 to UAH 16.95 per cubic meter, excluding VAT.
Interesting for the week
In the letter, seen by Bloomberg News, Greece calls on the EU to respond quickly to the sharp rise in energy prices and to take additional measures to protect the security of natural gas in Southeast Europe and the EU. “The shifts in the geopolitical landscape make this task even more urgent,” Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis wrote in the letter. The European Union is preparing for natural gas to take up a smaller share of the energy mix, but “we will be dependent on gas for at least two decades,” the Greek prime minister said.
Azerbaijan cuts off gas supplies to Serbia and Bulgaria. “The shutdown did not result in additional costs for the company to purchase replacement natural gas and did not affect the natural gas market in the region, although today we cannot count on 1.7 million cubic meters of gas coming in daily,” the statement said on Thursday, adding that the situation has reinforced the need to diversify natural gas sources. An industry source told Reuters that the shipments were interrupted due to a “problem” on BP’s Alpha platform at the Shah Deniz offshore gas field in the Caspian Sea. In July 2022, the EU and Azerbaijan signed an agreement to double Azerbaijani gas imports to Europe, which is looking for non-Russian suppliers after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Memorandum on the establishment of the EU-Ukraine hydrogen corridor is signed. Having made a significant step towards Ukraine’s integration into European value chains, implementation of the Ukraine Facility Plan and strengthening European energy security, the Ukrainian GTS Operator together with several key organizations and companies signed a Memorandum of Understanding (hereinafter - the Memorandum) on the establishment and support of the implementation of the EU-Ukraine Hydrogen Corridor. The signing was attended by representatives of the Ukrainian GTS Operator, Stadtwerke München, Wien Energie, Open Grid Europe, bayernets, NET4GAS, eustream, CWP Europe, Hydrogen Ukraine, UDPR Hydrogen and several other companies. The Memorandum of Understanding outlines joint efforts aimed at harnessing the future potential of Ukraine’s renewable energy sector and integrating it into the European energy market.