Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were volatile, different from the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week were lasting trades of resource of January, February 2025. In general, 10 Companies were forming positions for natural gas purchase: D.Trading, National Resources of Ukraine LLC, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, Nadra-Geoinvest, LLC GAS SUPPLY COMPANY NAFTOGAZ TRADING, Ukrnafta, ENERHO ZBUT TRANS LLC, etc.
Resources starting prices were decreased during the week. As a result, on Friday, the awerage starting price of the resource of February in GTS of Ukraine was lower than the Monday indicators for 8,6%.
During the last week, positions for purchase were sold. In general, 720 th. c. m. of natural gas were sold. ENERHO ZBUT TRANS LLC purchased 300 th. c.m. of resource in February in GTS (prepayment) with the price 16045 UAH/th.c.m. excl. VAT, and JSC Kyivvodocanal purchased 420 th. c.m. of February resource wit WOG supply (postpayment) with the price 17085 UAH/th.c.m. excl. VAT.
On UEEX natural gas short-term market participants were forming applications in GTS and UGS. Last week compering to the previous period, there were no significant price change. On Friday, January 31, the weighted average price of the SSP was UAH 16 799 excl. VAT.
European market
Not only gas markets, but energy markets in general, started last week on a bearish note with declines seen across the board. Fears of a decline in exports from the US LNG plant in Freeport were eased after it returned to operation following the large-scale cancellation of planned LNG exports due to Hurricane Beryl.
In general, prices rose last week amid concerns about tight LNG markets and the depletion of European storage facilities. Total Norwegian pipeline exports declined: Gullfaks and Troll were out of service until January 31 (inclusive), respectively, and Åsgard extended an unplanned disconnect until February 2 (inclusive). This amounted to a loss of 27,3 million c.m. per day of total exports.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 30.01.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Weighted average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 52,78 | 53,07 | 52,00 | 57,04 | 51,72 | 53,32 |
| M+1 | 52,24 | 52,57 | 51,43 | 56,59 | 52,40 | 53,05 |
| Q +1 | 52,1 | 52,55 | 51,24 | 55,74 | 51,08 | 52,54 |
| S +1 | 47,26 | 52,57 | 51,2 | 53,82 | 50,92 | 52,12 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0,51%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1,45%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 52,12 EUR/MWh tended to decrease compared to the spot prices by an average of 2,20%.
The NBP-TTF DA spread widened from the previous trading day to £7,95/therm. January 30, 2025 UK short-term gas prices rose on Thursday, helped by colder temperatures and lower wind generation. The NBP spot price was up 2% from the previous trading day, closing at £133.90/therm. However, the NBP Summer-2025 contract remained unchanged at £124,13/therm. The increase in LNG imports to the UK helped to ease tensions in European gas markets. Currently, the UK expects 13 LNG cargoes to arrive between January 31 and February 14, including one new cargo. The main source of these cargoes is the United States, which is supplying 9 cargoes, with additional cargoes coming from Trinidad and Tobago, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. The next expected arrival is on February 1 at South Hook with a regasification volume of 98 million cubic meters.
The March futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on January 30 at USD 509,26 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 532,17 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 54,65% as of January 29, 2025, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK is approaching 28%.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 78,4%.
Last week, natural gas imports came only from Hungary, averaging 1,3 mcm per day, while exports were observed to Moldova in the amount of 0,1 mcm per day and to Hungary only on 30.01 in the amount of 0,7 mcm per day. Ukraine had about 8,2 bcm in storage. Withdrawals amounted to about 39 mcm per day, a decrease due to relatively warm weather.
On the related oil market, winter weather disrupted the operation of refineries on the US Gulf Coast, and Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 75,51/bbl on January 31, 2025. USD/barrel. Thus, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil policy despite falling prices and Trump’s pressure.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came only from Hungary, averaging 1,3 mcm per day, while exports were observed to Moldova in the amount of 0,1 mcm per day and to Hungary only on 30.01 in the amount of 0,7 mcm per day. Ukraine had about 8,2 bcm in storage. Withdrawals amounted to about 39 mcm per day, a decrease due to relatively warm weather.
Interesting for the week
Gas will be supplied to Pridnestrovia, Energozhynka reports. On January 30, the authorities of Transnistria and Moldova agreed on a preliminary scheme for gas imports in February 2024. From February 1 to February 10, the left bank of the Dniester will buy gas, about 3,2 million cubic meters, through Moldova’s Energocom to Moldovagaz. This purchase will be made with a EUR 30 million grant from the EU. According to estimates, it will be cheaper than receiving electricity from the Moldovan hydroelectric power plant. But starting February 11, gas supplies will begin from Hungarian companies. Hungary is dependent on russia, which means that gas will still come from russian companies. As long as the political situation is like this, especially since elections are coming up in Moldova, and russian representatives may win.