Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated, while European market’s prices were relatively stable.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in the resource for July, August 2025, and the following months continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 5 companies: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LTK Electrum, Ukrzaliznytsia, Euroexport, Energo Zbut Trans.
The starting prices of resources in the section "Medium and long-term market" changed differently, depending on the direction of the position - for purchase or sale. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the resource in the underground storage facility was lower than Monday’s figure by 6,11%.
During the past week, purchase positions were sold. In total, 13,740 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold and the following quotation prices were formed:
Also in the section "Imported natural gas" 10 million cubic meters were sold at a price of UAH 21744,17 with delivery to underground storage facilities.
On the short-term natural gas market, UEEX participants formed applications on the intraday market. Gas was sold in the GTS of Ukraine. In total, 26 thousand cubic meters were sold. During the week, no significant price fluctuations were recorded on the short-term market. prices. The weighted average price of the gas pipeline on Friday, July 25, was UAH 20800 excluding VAT.
European market
European gas prices moved in a narrow range last week. Increased LNG supplies in Europe, driven by rising imports and subdued demand in Asia, contributed to a drop in TTF gas futures prices during the fourth week of July.
Weak spot market demand in the TTF hub country, the Netherlands, has reached a historic low. The analysis shows that gas generation only accounted for ≈⅓ of electricity supply in the first half of 2025. Europe as a whole is showing a reduction in consumption in line with REPowerEU plans, but demand for gas for generation is still ongoing. With the start of the European holiday season, demand is expected to fall further until August. In addition, there is little sign of a repeat of the abnormal heat experienced earlier this season. Despite a series of mild winters, forecasters estimate the probability of a cold winter in 2025/26 at 1 in 10.
September LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 425,30 per thousand cubic meters on July 24. Futures for LNG delivered to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 394,87/thousand cubic meters. Europe dominates summer consumption, according to Reuters, European LNG imports grew by 24% in the first 7 months of 2025, while Asia fell by ~6% due to weak Chinese demand and excess inventories.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh, 24.07.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,51 | 35,78 | 32,08 | 36,07 | 37,01 | 34,89 |
| M+1 | 33,64 | 35,78 | 32,38 | 35,55 | 37,00 | 34,87 |
| Q +1 | 35,32 | 36,35 | 34,11 | 38,41 | 34,75 | 35,79 |
| S +1 | 35,66 | 36,66 | 34,45 | 38,95 | 34,58 | 36,06 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices - a decrease in price by an average of 0,03%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 2,75%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 36,06 EUR/MWh had a tendency to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 3,54%.
As of 24 July, EU storage capacity was 66%. EU gas injection volumes remain high. Despite some daily variability, weekly rates remain above 2% and monthly rates around 10%. This gives confidence that Europe will enter the winter season with sufficient reserves, with the only question being whether the inevitable gas outages in Norway will continue. The EU continues to adhere to the 90% capacity target by 1 November (with a possible deviation of up to -10%) under the new flexible regulation that takes into account market conditions.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating at an average capacity of 79.80% on 23 July.
EU LNG stocks as of 23 July 2025 were 4.989 million cubic metres, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories.
The storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of July 18, 2025, was 3,075 billion cubic feet, which is 5,9% higher than the average for the last five years.
In the related market, Brent crude oil was trading at USD 69,45/barrel on July 25. Optimism related to EU-US trade talks and improving economic data supported prices on the morning of July 25.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction during the week amounted to an average of 27 million cubic meters per day, from Hungary, Poland, Moldova and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were about 9,3 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. There was practically no withdrawal. Injection amounted to about 54 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
TotalEnergies and CMA CGM announce LNG bunkering joint venture in Rotterdam, which will allow the supply of up to 360000 tons of LNG annually by 2040 - an important project for maritime transport and energy autonomy of the EU. Also, SEFE (Germany) signed a contract for 700000 tons of LNG per year with ADNOC (UAE) for a period of three years, starting in the summer of 2025 - a step of targeted diversification from Russian supplies.
The Netherlands plans to create an “emergency reserve” of gas starting in 2026, to ease traders’ concerns about the slow pace of gas injection into storage. State-owned energy company EBN BV has already started pumping gas into one of the country’s facilities, and the government is working on a legislative proposal for the reserve. Bloomberg reports. According to Tim van Dijk, a spokesman for the Dutch Ministry of Climate Policy and Green Growth, stocks meet the European Union’s threshold for this month and are on track to meet the national target of 80% by November. Traders are watching Dutch reserves because they lag behind countries such as France, Italy and Austria.