Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week gas price in Ukraine were fluctuated, following European hubs tendencies.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in July 2025 and August 2025 continued. In total, 4 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LTC Electrum, Ukrzaliznytsia, GPK Naftogaz Trading.
The starting prices of resources in the medium and long-term market section were generally stable throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 4,66% higher than on Monday.
Last week, only purchases of positions were sold. In total, 40000 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Almost the entire volume - 36700 thousand cubic meters - was purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator. The positions of Naftogaz of Ukraine and Ukrzaliznytsia were also successful. The last week’s trading participants formed the following quotation prices:
In addition, trading was carried out in the imported natural gas trading sections, where positions were formed by the GTS Operator of Ukraine. Last week, no quotation prices were formed in the Imported Natural Gas and Cross-Border, Customs Warehouse sections.
In the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants formed bids on the intraday market, in the GTS and UGS facilities. Gas was sold in the Ukrainian gas transmission system. In total, 7 deals were concluded with a total volume of 131 thousand cubic meters. During the week, no significant price movements were recorded on the short-term market. Thus, on Friday, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 2050 per thousand cubic meters.
European market
Overall, gas prices rose last week compared to the previous day’s closing prices. The growth was driven, in particular, by risks associated with warm weather amid expectations of increased demand for cooling in the EU. Fundamentals remain generally unchanged: the demand outlook remains unchanged, and imports from Norway remain stable, with no unscheduled outages.
Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs ended in the 2nd week of July, after which new rates were announced for a number of countries, which, however, will not be enforced if an agreement is reached by August 1. These tariffs range from 10% to 50% and will affect global markets if they are implemented. The market is shrouded in uncertainty: high tariffs for the largest producing countries are likely to lead to a significant reduction in energy demand, weakening Europe’s competition for LNG supplies.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh., 10.07.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 35,58 | 38,94 | 34,6 | 39,72 | 38,62 | 37,49 |
| M+1 | 36,29 | 38,84 | 35,16 | 39,66 | 36,04 | 37,20 |
| Q +1 | 37,85 | 39,03 | 39,03 | 42,39 | 37,17 | 38,63 |
| S +1 | 37,98 | 39,08 | 36,82 | 43,04 | 37,32 | 38,85 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0,69%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 3,13%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 38,85 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by an average of 3,71%.
The discount under the UK NBP Day Ahead contract to the Dutch TTF Day Ahead contract has been reduced to 3,33 pence/therm, which stimulates exports to the continent as LNG supplies to the UK increase by 6 mcm/d to 15 mcm/d. This month, two LNG cargoes with a total regasification volume of 208 million cubic meters are due to arrive on UK shores.
On the forward curve, the Win-2025 contract rose in most markets as LNG supplies continued to bypass the Suez Canal following a second attack on a Yemeni Houthi rebel vessel after a brief pause in the fighting.
Rising temperatures in Asia are putting pressure on cooling demand, especially in Japan and South Korea, which is likely to increase upward pressure on European gas markets as competition for LNG supplies may intensify as a result. The August futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on July 10 at USD 469,88 per thousand cubic meters. US dollars per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 423,87 per thousand cubic meters.
As of July 9, EU storage facilities were at 61,95%, maintaining high daily injection rates of more than 0,2% since May 23. Nevertheless, this level is still 19,6% lower than in the same period last year, potentially leading to the announcement by German state-owned SEFE that it is ready to sell the Rehden gas storage facilities as soon as possible, with injections to be carried out from mid-August to meet EU storage targets. This could provide additional support to remaining gas prices in the third quarter in both the UK and the EU.
European LNG terminals were operating on July 2 with an average capacity of 79,83%.
As of July 9, 2025, LNG reserves in the EU amounted to 5,040 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of July 4, 2025, was 3,006 billion cubic feet, which is 6,1% higher than the average for the last five years.
On the adjacent market, Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 68,64 on July 10. On July 10, Brent crude oil prices fell to USD 68,64 per barrel as investors became more cautious. On July 11, the price remained virtually unchanged from yesterday and oil was trading at USD 68,66/bbl. However, signs of strong demand for gasoline in the US may put pressure on prices. President Trump has promised to make a statement on Russia on Monday, and the market is anticipating additional sanctions against Russia, a major oil producer. Concerns about tariffs and increased production under OPEC+ are limiting any projected growth.
Gas balance in Ukraine
During the week, natural gas imports from the European direction averaged 27 million cubic meters per day from all four European countries. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 8,6 bcm in storage facilities. There was no withdrawal. Injection was about 56 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Bulgaria plans to commission the Vertical Gas Corridor, which connects Greece to Northern Europe, by the end of 2026, according to the Energy Ministry in Sofia. In 2016, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, and Hungary agreed to create the necessary infrastructure for the Vertical Gas Corridor, which provides bilateral gas transportation between the participating countries. Last year, Ukraine, Moldova, and Slovakia joined the initiative. Bulgarian Energy Minister Zhecho Stankov said in a press release that their goal is to commission the Kulata-Kresna section, which is under construction, by the second quarter of next year and complete the Rupcha-Vetrino section by the fourth quarter. The 61-kilometer Rupcha-Vetrino section is expected to receive a construction permit by the end of July.
Once completed, the pipeline will double the capacity of the Bulgaria-Romania entry/exit route to 10 billion cubic meters. Bulgartransgaz, the state-owned gas transmission operator, is working with regional partners to establish unified tariffs for transportation through the corridor. After Russian gas supplies to Ukraine are cut off, this route is expected to become the main supply channel in the region. To support its creation, two capacity expansion projects are underway to increase gas flows from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova, potentially reaching Ukraine. Last month, Bulgartransgaz announced that it is seeking BGN 200 million (USD 119,9 million/EUR 102,3 million) in loan financing to expand its infrastructure within the Vertical Gas Corridor.