Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in June 2025, July 2025, and subsequent months continued. In total, 7 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, Energo Zbut Trans, Ukrzaliznytsia, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Tepla Energy Company, Tviy Gaz, TAS Energy Country.
The starting prices of resources were growing throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 6.15% higher than on Monday.
Last week, the Naftogaz sold its purchase positions. In total, 11660 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Almost the entire volume was purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator for delivery in June and July. Bidders formed the following quotation prices:
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the within-day market. During the week, 6 deals were concluded with a total volume of 126 thousand cubic meters. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, June 20, amounted to UAH 2,750 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week, gas market prices were on an upward trend, as global energy markets plunged into panic more than a week ago. Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure triggered a predictable chain reaction: oil went up, gas prices soared, and traders got worried. The headlines were impressive. The price fluctuations were even more impressive.
At last Thursday’s meeting, June 19, geopolitical concerns related to escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to drive significant volatility on the gas curve. The US commented on possible intervention, which would ultimately only exacerbate the situation.
In addition to geopolitical tensions, the market is increasingly focused on the risk of another energy crisis similar to the one that occurred in 2022. At the time, there were a number of factors, including extreme heat across Europe that hampered nuclear power production in France due to elevated river temperatures and corrosion-related disruptions in some parts of the fleet. These structural problems are now being exacerbated by EU legislation that requires a complete phase-out of Russian gas imports by 2027.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the respective period, EUR/MWh, 06/19/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 42,34 | 45,34 | 41,38 | 44,29 | 44,86 | 43,64 |
| M+1 | 42,5 | 45,44 | 41,60 | 43,21 | 45,98 | 35,10 |
| Q +1 | 42,98 | 45,67 | 42,06 | 43,86 | 44,56 | 35,05 |
| S +1 | 44,32 | 45,86 | 43,05 | 46,46 | 45,36 | 35,72 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average increase of 0.23%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.45%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 35.72 EUR/MWh tended to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 3.17%.
Significant volumes of gas supplies from Norway through pipelines, expectations of a short-term drop in temperatures to seasonal norms from next week across Northwest Europe, and an increase in storage capacity in Europe (54.69%) eased pressure on prices on Friday morning.
Benchmarks such as TTF are highly sensitive, as any increase in Asian demand could potentially pull LNG cargoes away from Europe, putting European buyers in a difficult position. Tensions around LNG supply routes are high. One news headline can ignite new growth, one attack on a shipping route can send freight departments into a panic.
The U.K. Winter-25 contract rose by circa 6.33% during the June 19 session - its sharpest rise since March 2023 - to reach its highest level since early March 2025. Weekly gains at the front end of the curve are now measured in double digits, with M+1 through Winter-25 contracts up circa 15%.
The August futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on June 19 at $496.90. US dollars per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 460.21 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU on June 18 was 54.69%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
European LNG terminals operated on June 18 with an average capacity of 78.99%.
As of June 18, 2025, LNG reserves in the EU amounted to 5.112 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of June 13, 2025, was 2.802 bcf, which is 6.1% higher than the average for the last five years.
Similar to the dynamics in the gas markets, Brent was trading on June 20 at USD 77.21/barrel. Oil had reached its highest level since January 25 in the previous session, but has since recovered on Friday morning, following similar trends in the gas market.
Gas balance in Ukraine
During the week, natural gas imports from Europe averaged 18.5 million cubic meters per day, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the “customs warehouse”. Ukraine had about 7.5 billion cubic meters in storage. There was no withdrawal. Injection was about 47 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Since September 2024, two Ukrainian producers have supplied more than 5 million cubic meters of biomethane to the Ukrainian gas transportation system (GTS). This was stated by Kateryna Kovalenko, Head of the Strategy Department of the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU), during a conference on the development of biomethane production in Ukraine, organized by the Energy Community and the United Kingdom Agency for International Development, the GTSOU press service reports.
Kateryna Kovalenko emphasized that the way a producer connects to the GTS (directly or through the GDS) does not affect the possibility of exporting biomethane. In particular, the mentioned producers are connected to the GTS and have already started exporting biomethane to European countries via the gas transportation system.
Gaz-System and GTSOU have agreed to double the guaranteed capacity in the Poland-Ukraine direction from July 1, 2025. As part of their joint efforts to prepare for the next heating season, the gas transmission system operators of Poland and Ukraine have agreed to temporarily increase the level of guaranteed throughput capacity in the direction of Ukraine from 2,827,500 kWh (approximately 6.0 million m³/day at 0 °C, approximately 6.4 million m³/day at 20 °C) to 5,424,000 kWh (approximately 11.5 million m³/day at 0 °C, approximately 12.4 million m³/day at 20 °C). The GTS operators conducted a series of technical negotiations and studies aimed at identifying potential options for providing additional gas transportation capacity to Ukraine, which led to the above agreement. They will continue to cooperate to prolong this decision for the following periods.