Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated over last week, following European hubs trends.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week trading with resource of June 2025, July 2025 and following monthes were lasting. In general 6 Companies were forming natural gas purchase and sale positions: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LLC GAS SUPPLY COMPANY NAFTOGAZ TRADING, TEPLA ENERGY COMPANY LLC, AC MINERALS LLC, «ENERHO ZBUT TRANS» LLC, Ukrzaliznytsia.
The starting prices of resources in the mid- and long-term market section increased throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 5,26% higher than on Monday.
Last week, both sell and buy positions were sold. In total, 24700 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. In particular, the GTS Operator of Ukraine purchased 21300 thousand cubic meters of June’s resource in the GTS and UGS facilities, and Naftogaz Trading purchased 3100 June’s resource in the UGS facilities. The quotation prices formed as a result of the trades are shown in the chart below.
In the section for trading in imported resources, the starting positions for purchase and sale were formed by Tepla Energy Company and the Ukrainian GTS Operator. No weighted average prices were formed at these auctions.
On the short-term natural gas market of UEEX, participants formed applications on the within-day market in the GTS and UGS facilities. During the week, 9 deals were concluded with a total volume of 196 thousand cubic meters. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, June 6, amounted to UAH 19950 excluding VAT.
European market
Gas supply fundamentals remained largely unchanged last week. So far, supply looks solid, but structural risks are rising. In the longer term, market experts see several threats to a volatile summer: a developing heat wave, concerns about river levels in France, which affect both nuclear reactor cooling and navigation, and the upcoming hurricane season, which could potentially disrupt LNG logistics.
Scheduled outages in Norway continue to limit supplies to European markets, supporting prices despite higher temperatures this week that soften demand, leaving daily supply in a balance between rising and falling signals.
While demand for gas for residential and industrial use remains unchanged, demand for gas for electricity generation is increasing due to reduced wind and nuclear power generation. This tightens the balance on days when renewables are low and pushes prices up.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh, 06.06.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 37,04 | 39,78 | 36,11 | 40,14 | 40,38 | 38,69 |
| M+1 | 37,33 | 40,18 | 36,41 | 39,09 | 36,99 | 38,00 |
| Q +1 | 37,56 | 40,14 | 36,62 | 39,48 | 37,36 | 38,23 |
| S +1 | 39,01 | 40,38 | 37,62 | 42,78 | 40,57 | 40,07 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices - a decrease in price by an average of 1,68%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1,08%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 40,07 EUR/MWh had a tendency to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 3,61%.
The market remains vulnerable to tensions between russia, Ukraine and the United States, and sentiment is highly sensitive to any new developments. The United States and China have begun talks on trade deals that could ease economic agreements, lifting energy markets. russia has also abandoned the idea of a gas hub in Turkey, which could offer a potential route back to Europe for more russian gas. Market participants can reduce risk, take advantage of favorable forward pricing and avoid sudden changes in fundamentals. Postponing purchases for small savings could cost more if volatility returns.
UK gas market has increased its premium over the European TTF to GBP 3,61/term.
July LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 444,46 per thousand cubic metres on June 5. The LNG North West Europe Marker futures closed last Thursday at USD 409,02 per thousand cubic metres.
EU gas storage levels rose by 0,33% per day to 49,88%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. With a target of 90% by 1 November, EU member states still have a long way to go, but current discussions could ease pressure on storage levels, with proposals to lower the target to 80-83% and bring the date forward to 1 December. The UK’s gas storage level was 43%.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating at an average capacity of 77,04% on June 4.
EU LNG stocks as of June 4, 2025 were 5,421 million cubic meters, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories.
The storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 2,598 billion cubic feet as of May 30, 2025, according to the latest EIA data, which is 4,7% higher than the average for the past five years.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 65,01/barrel on June 6, 2025, amid reports that the United States and China are discussing a trade deal, which could lift the market over the next week, as they have been depressed since the beginning of the year and recently hit a 4-year low due to a softening global economic outlook and increased OPEC+ production.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction during the week amounted to 16 million cubic meters, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There was no export from the “customs warehouse”. There were about 6,9 billion cubic meters in Ukrainian storage facilities. There was no withdrawal. Injection was about 40 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Hungary’s MVM is negotiating a long-term gas supply contract with Azerbaijan, deepening the strategic partnership between the countries. This was stated by the company’s director Gabor Orban during a speech at the energy forum in Baku. According to him, the duration of the future contract will depend on stable and sustainable market conditions. MVM Group also owns 5% of the shares of the Shah Deniz gas project and 4% of the South Caucasus Pipeline Company, which operates the South Caucasus Pipeline. This, according to the Hungarian side, strengthens their long-term presence in the region.
Earlier, in June 2023, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan SOCAR and MVM CEEnergy signed a contract for the supply of 100 million cubic meters of gas with deliveries starting in April 2024.
The Council adopted amendments to the Budget Code to implement the Minerals Agreement. Ukraine’s contribution will consist of half of the funds from the rent for mineral extraction, the issuance of new special permits for the use of subsoil and the sale of the state part of the products under new agreements. Deputies of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved amendments to the Budget Code for the implementation of the Minerals Agreement with the United States. 309 people’s deputies voted "in favor".
In the UK, Centrica has warned that Rough Storage could close without government support. Rough Storage currently accounts for almost half of the UK’s gas storage capacity. Without it, UK gas supplies could be reduced to 6 days, compared to 120 days in Germany and 100 days in France – a serious threat as winter storage begins.