Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in resources for June, July, and August 2025 continued. In total, 5 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Ukrzaliznytsia, Kyivvodokanal, and Energo Zbut Trans.
The starting prices of resources on the Medium and Long-Term Market section decreased throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 9.13% lower than on Monday. Last week, both sell and buy positions were realized. In total, 49054 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Of this amount, 48100 thousand cubic meters were purchased by the GTS Operator of Ukraine.
Participants formed the quotation prices in this section, as shown in the chart below.
In addition, trading was carried out in the sections for trading in imported natural gas. Last week, the first deal was concluded in the Cross-border, customs warehouse section, where the GTS Operator purchased 100 thousand cubic meters of natural gas in the customs warehouse + short haul mode at a price of 480 euros.
Also, 3 agreements were concluded in the Imported Natural Gas section. In this section, the GTS Operator of Ukraine purchased 22300 thousand cubic meters of natural gas in the UGS facilities for delivery in June-October 2025. The price range was UAH 23,000-24465.79 per thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the within-day market. During the week, 76 thousand cubic meters were sold. On Friday, June 27, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 2,100 excluding VAT.
European market
After the turbulent sessions during the previous week, starting last Wednesday, market volatility flattened out along the gas market curve. Traders paused and recalibrated their assessment of fundamentals following the perceived significant reduction in shipping risks from the Strait of Hormuz. After the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran earlier this week, gas prices experienced strong negative dynamics. As the threat to global gas systems disappears, the picture of a “healthy” European gas system is contributing to lower prices. Prices are falling to the level of early May amid heavy injections of gas into European storage facilities, and supply disruptions from Norway are scheduled only for the end of August. With the last round of planned outages in Norway completed, no further outages are expected until the end of August, meaning that gas supplies from Norway to the UK and Europe should be stable as EU member states focus on filling gas storage facilities before winter. EU storage utilization is currently at 57%, with forecasts ranging from 85 to 92% for November 1, easily reaching the new EU minimum threshold of 80% by December 1.
The premium of the UK gas market over the European index has increased significantly over the past week, reaching a maximum of 8.54 pence/therm at the beginning of the week and is now 4.5 pence/therm (0.15 p/kWh). Flows in Norway slightly decreased to 59 mcm/d due to a 2 mcm/d reduction in Langeland flows, which now stand at 50 mcm/d.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the respective period, EUR/MWh, 06/26/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 34,66 | 38,04 | 33,28 | 40,64 | 39,42 | 37,21 |
| M+1 | 35,15 | 38,33 | 34,03 | 39,06 | 40,79 | 37,47 |
| Q +1 | 35,63 | 38,47 | 34,59 | 39,61 | 38,54 | 37,37 |
| S +1 | 37,7 | 39,12 | 36,42 | 42,92 | 39,29 | 39,09 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average increase of 0.81%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.62%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 39.09 EUR/MWh tended to increase compared to the spot prices by an average of 5.27%.
Temperatures are forecast to rise steadily until the end of June before returning to more seasonal norms in early July. As temperatures rise, demand for cooling is likely to increase. However, while the impact across continental Europe will be high, it will not be significant in the UK due to the relatively low adoption of domestic and industrial cooling systems.
The UK spot price of NBP fell by 5% to 78.55 pence/therm on Thursday due to improved LNG vailability and stable supplies from Norway, while demand in Europe and Asia remained low. The August futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on June 26 at USD 477.04 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 431.57 per thousand cubic meters.
The market is returning to assessing more local and regional dynamics of storage levels in Europe, which are relatively low for this time of year. On June 25, the EU gas storage level was 57.15%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
European LNG terminals were operating on June 18 with an average capacity of 79.79%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of June 25, 2025 amounted to 5.311 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of June 20, 2025, was 2.898 bcf, which is 6.6% higher than the average for the last five years.
Crude oil prices rose slightly on Thursday to USD 67.73 per barrel due to a decline in US inventories amid high demand during the summer season. Commercial crude oil inventories fell to their lowest seasonal level in more than a decade. On June 27, Brent was trading at USD 68.32 per barrel. On a more global and economic note, the market is weighing the confirmed Q1 GDP data from the US. The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first half of the year, and OPEC+ is lifting its self-imposed production cuts, which is keeping oil prices below USD 70 per barrel.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction averaged 19 mcm per day during the week, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 8 bcm in storage facilities. There was no withdrawal. Injection was over 40 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
It is estimated that natural gas bills for Europe will be higher this year due to the forecast of colder winters in 2024-25 and lower storage levels, with an estimated additional cost of USD 11.2 billion. Europe is now hoping for favorable circumstances: low Asian demand for LNG, a resolution of the war between Israel and Iran to mitigate supply disruptions, and a mild winter in 2025-26. Recent import data for 2024 show that Norway is the largest supplier of natural gas to the EU via pipelines, while the United States leads in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports. Other major LNG suppliers are Russia and Algeria, as well as Qatar, although its preference for long-term contracts contradicts the strategies of EU planners. Market experts say that Europe’s refusal to develop local hydrocarbon resources and commit to long-term LNG supplies is counterproductive because it does not take into account the realities of energy supply and demand.