Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week natural gas prices in Ukraine were more stable, than in the previous period, still maintaining in bilateral fluctuations.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in July 2025, August 2025 and subsequent months continued. In total, 4 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Ltk Electrum, PPC Naftogaz Trading, Ukrzaliznytsia, and GTS Operator of Ukraine.
Starting prices for resources in the medium and long-term market section varied widely throughout the week. For example, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 10,86% higher than on Monday.
Last week, buy positions were sold. In total, 9800 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. This entire volume was purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator. The state-owned company purchased 6300 thousand cubic meters of July’s resource in the GTS of Ukraine and 3500 thousand cubic meters of July’s resource in the UGS facilities of Ukraine.
In addition, trading was carried out in the imported natural gas trading sections, where positions were formed by the GTS Operator of Ukraine. Last week, no quotation prices were formed in the Imported Natural Gas and Cross-Border, Customs Warehouse sections.
In the UEEX short-term natural gas market participants placed bids on the intraday market. During the week, 76 thousand cubic meters were sold. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, July 4, amounted to UAH 21704,81 excluding VAT.
European market
Volatility during June was extremely high, with geopolitical tensions creating large swings from day to day, but July started in complete contrast, with markets remaining extremely sluggish so far as traders adopted a “wait and see” approach as fundamental supply and demand factors return to the forefront of trading decisions. Weak economic outlook globally helped to soften global demand, making it easier to pump, however, as the US economy shows signs of recovery and talks between China and the US continue, the market may see a reversal of the trend.
During the previous week, most sessions returned to normal, with geopolitical events receding and more attention being paid to the supply and demand picture.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 03.07.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 34,18 | 37,57 | 32,83 | 103,01 | 37,91 | 49,10 |
| M+1 | 34,87 | 37,73 | 33,68 | 38,84 | 36,55 | 36,33 |
| Q +1 | 36,81 | 38,15 | 35,54 | 41,91 | 37,66 | 38,01 |
| S +1 | 37,01 | 38,35 | 35,78 | 42,24 | 37,21 | 38,12 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 12,17%. Quarter-ahead prices were 8,50% lower than spot prices on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 38,12 EUR/MWh were lower than spot prices by an average of 8,30%.
At the same time, geopolitical events remain the main reason for sudden price spikes, but the July heat wave in Europe, the French nuclear fleet being threatened by corrosion, and the suspension of Russian gas supplies to the European continent due to legislation pose a risk to future contracts.
Gas supplies to Europe remain strong, allowing for injections into storage facilities in preparation for the winter period. However, this remains tightly balanced, and Asian demand growth, currently delayed by the early onset of the Indian monsoon season and the slowdown in some economies due to the impact of US tariffs, poses a high risk as the price war for LNG cargoes intensifies as margins for shippers in the Asian market tighten.
As the threat from the Middle East to global gas systems has largely dissipated, a small price increase on July 3 during the day was caused by rising European temperatures, which forced French nuclear power plants to shut down due to high river temperatures that temporarily restricted gas supplies to Europe.
Currently, EU storage facilities are at 59,44%, up 2,29% from last week, as injections continue in preparation for winter.
Norwegian maintenance should increase in late August, which will create a very important 6-8 week window for gas injection, as it will be much more difficult to continue the current injection rates, as large volumes of Norwegian gas supplies will be cut off.
Exports to the European continent from the UK remained at a high level of 50 mcm/d. The prospects for significant pipeline gas and LNG supplies led to a 0,8% decline in the NBP spot price to 78p/therm on Thursday, July 3. Further down the curve, the winter 2025 contract fell by 0,3% to 92,30 p/therm, pressured by the EU Energy Committee’s approval of rules requiring gas storage facilities to be 90% full between October 1 and December 1, replacing the previous strict requirement of being full by November 1.
The August futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on July 3 at USD 471,13. US dollars per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 421,55 per thousand cubic meters.
European LNG terminals were operating on July 2 with an average capacity of 79,91%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of July 2, 2025 amounted to 5,316 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of June 27, 2025, was 2,953 billion cubic feet, which is 6,6% higher than the average over the past five years.
On July 4, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 65 per barrel, as prices decline amid Iran’s continued commitment to the nuclear deal, as well as OPEC+’s ongoing commitment to lift their production cuts, announcing a further increase in supply in August by 411000 bpd, following similar increases in May, June and July of this year.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction averaged 25 million cubic meters per day during the week, from Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There was an increase in natural gas imports and a change in the structure of imports since the beginning of July: a decrease in the share of Hungary and an increase in the share of Poland. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 8,2 bcm in storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injections amounted to about 58 mcm per day.
Interesting for the week
Since the beginning of July, Ukraine has started importing natural gas via the joint Trans-Balkan route. Gas transportation volumes correspond to the booked capacities - about 162 thousand cubic meters per day. Natural gas is transported from Greece via Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova to Ukraine. The gas is delivered to the customs warehouse.
A draft Technical Regulation on Natural Gas is under consideration, which provides for a ban on the supply of substandard gas to the GTS, as well as the introduction of sanctions against companies that violate these technical requirements. In particular, it sets strict standards for the physical and chemical characteristics of natural gas, which is a cause for concern among market participants. According to some experts, this document does not take into account the realities of wartime, in particular the impact of shelling on the infrastructure serving gas production in Ukraine.
GTSOU and Gaz-System have agreed to extend the temporary increase in the guaranteed capacity offered from Poland to Ukraine until September 2026. As part of their joint efforts to prepare for the upcoming heating season and improve the security of natural gas supplies for both Ukraine and the entire region, the operators of the gas transmission systems of Poland (Gaz-System) and Ukraine (GTSOU) have agreed to extend the temporary increase in the guaranteed capacity offered from Poland to Ukraine for a further period.