Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During last week natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated, following European hubs tendencies.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in June, July 2025 and subsequent months continued. In total, 9 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LLC TVIY GAS, GSK Naftogaz Trading, Energo Zbut Trans, Ltk Electrum, Ukrzaliznytsia, Ak Minerals, Ukr-Alliance Energy, and Tepla Energy Company.
The starting prices of resources increased significantly during the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of July resources in the GTS was 4,07% higher than on Monday.
Last week, both sell and buy positions were sold. In total, 18000 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Last week, Naftogaz Trading, the Ukrainian GTS Operator and Ukrzaliznytsia managed to purchase gas at the following quoted prices:
At UEEX short-term natural gas market participants placed applications on the intraday market in the GTS and UGS facilities. During the week, 8 deals were concluded with a total volume of 175 thousand cubic meters. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, June 13, amounted to UAH 2100 excluding VAT.
European market
Last Friday, natural gas rose along with the rest of the energy markets. Futures for the next month in the Netherlands rose to EUR 37,34 per MWh (USD 450,9 per thousand cubic meters) amid an escalating conflict with Iran and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz, an important waterway for LNG. The day before, on Thursday evening, Israel launched a series of coordinated strikes on key Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Although the full extent of the damage remains unconfirmed, market participants are preparing for a potential response as Iranian officials have stated their intention to respond decisively to both the United States and Israel. Qatar, which is one of the three largest LNG suppliers, Oman and the UAE hold 18% of the world’s supply. Any disruption of their exports through the Strait of Hormuz would have serious consequences for global energy markets, posing a significant risk to the stability of international commodity prices and supply chains.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the appropriate period, EUR /MWh., 12.06.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 36,90 | 40,49 | 35,95 | 39,70 | 39,89 | 38,59 |
| M+1 | 37,22 | 40,08 | 36,21 | 38,63 | 40,84 | 38,60 |
| Q +1 | 37,48 | 40,18 | 36,51 | 39,09 | 38,06 | 38,26 |
| S +1 | 39,06 | 40,67 | 37,8 | 42,44 | 40,61 | 40,12 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average increase of 0.05%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 0.75%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of EUR 40.12/MWh tended to increase compared to the spot prices by an average of 4.03%.
In addition to the geopolitical tensions, the Norwegian pipeline supply to Europe dropped to 221 mcm/d on June 13 and was already limited to seasonal service. Gassco announced an unplanned outage at Kollsnes with a total capacity reduction of 55 mcm/d, with no real idea when it will return to full capacity. Traders are also keeping an eye on possible further outages in Norway, Europe’s largest supplier of pipeline gas.
Forecasts indicate that temperatures in Europe will remain above average over the next two weeks, and demand for electricity for air conditioning will jump to the high levels seen in July 2022. Given the additional electricity price risk, it is likely to see a greater exposure to gas-fired generation, which would push up gas prices.
However, gas price growth is limited by positive sentiment, driven by subdued demand in Asia (due to milder than usual weather and possibly China’s acceptance of more pipeline gas instead of LNG). July futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on June 12 at USD 446,07 per thousand cubic meters. US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 409,91 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 52,44%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. If the rate of injection into EU storage facilities remains at the current level, they may be filled by almost 90% by the end of September.
European LNG terminals were operating on June 11 with an average capacity of 78,32%.
As of June 11, 2025, LNG reserves in the EU amounted to 5,157 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of June 6, 2025, was 2,707 bcf, which is 5,4% higher than the average for the last five years.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were similar to movements in gas markets and on June 13, 2025, Brent was trading at USD 72,75/bbl. USD/bbl, up 4,95% from the previous trading day and the highest price since early April. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran raises serious concerns about possible oil supply disruptions.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction amounted to 18 million cubic meters during the week, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 7,2 billion cubic meters in storage. There was no withdrawal. Injection was about 45 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Ukraine’s GTS Operator and Ukrtransgaz, the operator of underground gas storage facilities, held a joint shippers-meeting with key customers of transportation services. This is an annual partnership event organized by the Energy Community Secretariat. Among the participants of the event were representatives of the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy, the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), the European Energy Traders Association (ETE), international organizations, analytical agencies and energy companies. The GTSOU team presented new routes and products available for booking. The participants of the meeting devoted considerable attention to discussing a new monthly product for gas transportation from Greece to Ukraine. This seasonal product was launched jointly with neighboring GTS operators to unlock the commercial use of the Trans-Balkan route.
Industrial gas consumption in Spain reached a multi-year low in May. Last month, Spain’s industrial gas consumption was the lowest in May in at least nine years, according to grid operator Enagas. In May, industrial gas demand reached 449 GWh/d, up from 441 GWh/d in April but still below the 465 GWh/d recorded a year earlier, making it the weakest May figure since at least 2016, when Enagas began its public data set. So far in 2025, Spanish industrial demand has been lower each month compared to the previous year, primarily due to limited gas use by refineries.