Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the past week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in the resource of March 2025, April 2025 continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 8 companies: GTS Operator of Ukraine, D. Trading, MC Ukrnaftoburinnia, Ukrnafta, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Nadra-geoinvest, etc.
Starting prices of resources decreased during the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the April resource in the GTS was 2,65% lower than Monday’s figure.
During the past week, purchase positions were sold. In total, 4900 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Positions of the GTS Operator and Ukrzaliznytsia were successful, and the quoted prices shown in the chart were formed based on the trading results.
On the short-term natural gas market of the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, participants formed applications in the GTS and UGS. Last week, compared to the previous period, a decrease in prices and stable trading activity were recorded. The weighted average price of the short-term product on Friday, March 14, was UAH 16378 excluding VAT.
European market
European gas prices were trending higher last Monday after a russian attack on a Ukrainian pipeline signaled that russian supplies would remain cut off. The subsequent fall in gas prices over the past week was an “overreaction” to putin’s remarks about the return of russian gas to Europe if an energy deal is reached between the US and russia, while ongoing developments in peace talks continue to pose a bearish risk. Geopolitics therefore continues to add uncertainty to the outlook, with the US currently working on a list of demands from russia. Meanwhile, the EU Commission continues to push for a complete cut-off of russian gas, furthering Europe’s shift to alternative energy sources.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh, 13.03.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 42,63 | 42,72 | 41,42 | 44,84 | 44,27 | 43,87 |
| M+1 | 43,08 | 43,47 | 42,12 | 46,40 | 42,53 | 43,52 |
| Q +1 | 42,91 | 43,37 | 42,03 | 46,32 | 42,25 | 43,38 |
| S +1 | 42,88 | 42,2 | 41,97 | 45,00 | 42,55 | 42,92 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices - a decrease in price by an average of 0,67%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1,00%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 42,92 EUR/MWh had a downward trend compared to spot prices by an average of 2,01%.
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices - a decrease in price by an average of 0,67%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1,00%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 42,92 EUR/MWh had a downward trend compared to spot prices by an average of 2,01%.
The Asian LNG April futures contract, the JKM Platts Futures Index, settled at USD 489,21 per thousand cubic meters on March 6. The LNG North West Europe Marker futures contract closed last Thursday at USD 466,65 per thousand cubic meters.
The EU gas storage level was 35,89%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory as of March 12, 2025. The UK gas storage level was 32%.
European LNG receiving terminals operated at an average capacity of 78,45%.
EU LNG storage as of March 11, 2025 was 3,39 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories.
The storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of March 7, 2025, was 1,698 billion cubic feet, which is 11.9% below the average for the last five years.
In the related oil market, Brent oil prices were trading at USD 70,50/barrel on March 14, 2025, amid the International Energy Agency’s announcement that it was lowering its forecast for global oil demand growth. Oil prices are also falling due to trade conditions initiated by the United States. World experts are seriously concerned about a contraction in economic activity, and therefore a reduction in demand for energy resources.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports last week were almost entirely from Hungary. The average daily volume was 8,65 million cubic meters, including receipts to the “customs warehouse”. Exports from the “customs warehouse” were observed to Moldova and Poland with an average volume of 0,6 million cubic meters per day. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained about 5.9 billion cubic meters. Withdrawals were about 15 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting by the week
Ministry of energy chief sees need for investment in existing oil and gas fields. At the conference, Birol stressed that insufficient investment in existing oil and gas fields is a problem, as fossil fuels are essential to meeting global energy demand. He said that out of the total USD 400 billion in investment in global oil and gas, about USD 360 billion is going to compensate for the decline in existing oil and gas fields.
The United States provides about a quarter of the group’s funding. ME says it needs to focus on what its members believe is important for future energy security. Birol is under pressure from the Trump administration and the president’s Republican colleagues in Congress over the ME shift in recent years toward clean energy policies. “There is a need for investment in oil and gas production, period,” he said.
Employees of Prom-Energo Product and Regal Petroleum Corporation Limited, part of the Smart Energy group, sent collective appeals to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, with copies sent to the Cabinet of Ministers, the Ministry of Economy, and the Security Service of UkraineSmart Energy reported this on its Facebook page. “Give us the opportunity to honestly and professionally do our job – to extract gas at our own enterprise. And we will do everything possible for this,” 30 Kharkiv gas producers appealed to the president with this appeal. 130 oil and gas industry specialists from Poltava region also ask Zelensky, as the head of the country and the head of the National Security and Defense Council, to help unblock the enterprise’s work. Currently, both production companies of the group are idle due to the suspension of special permits for hydrocarbon production in accordance with the decision of the National Security and Defense Council on the application of sanctions, which was approved by presidential decree on October 8, 2024.