Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week gas prices in Ukraine had a stable tendency to decline, opposite to European hubs quotations.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week March, April 2025 resource trading were ongoing. In general 7 Companies formed sales positions: JOINT STOCK COMPANY UKRAINIAN RAILWAYS, D.TRADING LLC, LLC CENTRENERGY, JSC UKRNAFTOBURINNYA, Ukrnafta, LLC GAS TSO OF UKRAINE, LLC GAS SUPPLY COMPANY NAFTOGAZ TRADING.
Resources starting prices were decreased during the week. As the result, as of Friday, March resource starting price in GTS was lower than Mobday indicator for 3,51%.
During the last week, sales positions were sold. In general 17200 th.c.m. of natural gas were sold. LLC GAS SUPPLY COMPANY NAFTOGAZ TRADING and GTS Operator were succeffull. Exclusivery natural gas of March resource in UGS were sold with postpayment terms and the following quotation prices were formed:
At UEEX short-term natural gas market particants formed GTS and UGS applications. Last week, compared to the previous period, there was a decrease in price and stable trading activity. The weighted average price of the short-term product on Friday, March 21, amounted to UAH 16012,35 excluding VAT.
European Market
Last week, prices were impacted by higher risk premiums amid continued geopolitical tensions, including ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Further down the curve, the Sum-2025 contracts declined after buyer pressure eased, driven by the EU’s flexible gas storage targets and steady LNG inflows, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
On the night of March 21, the Russians shelled the Sudzha gas interconnector, which could make the resumption of Russian gas supplies almost impossible. After that, futures on the Dutch gas hub TTF rose by 2%. The cost of a megawatt-hour reached 43.8 euros, which is equivalent to about 500 US dollars per thousand cubic meters.
Northwest Europe (Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands) will continue to need a price premium compared to its competitors such as Asia to continue to encourage LNG cargoes to fill any supply gaps. This will reduce pressure on storage utilization, ensuring that there is less demand for injection from the start of the 2025 summer season (less than two weeks away). Currently, there is a shift in export volumes towards France, as the French market is currently trading at a premium to the UK market, making exports to the UK less attractive.
On the other hand, the NBP-TTF spread closed with a NBP Day-ahead premium of £2.19/therm over TTF Day-ahead, compared to yesterday’s premium of £1.66/therm, which stimulated imports into the UK.
The May futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on March 20 at USD 484,37 per th. c. m. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 468,09 per th. c. m.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 34,02%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory as of March 19, 2025.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 78,41%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of March 19, 2025 amounted to 3,356 mln.c.m., according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory.
Contract prices with delivery at responsible term, EUR/MWh., 20.03.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 43,28 | 44,59 | 41,97 | 48,46 | 45,26 | 44,71 |
| M+1 | 44,16 | 44,63 | 42,99 | 47,43 | 43,10 | 44,46 |
| Q +1 | 44,04 | 44,56 | 43,05 | 47,58 | 43,23 | 44,49 |
| S +1 | 44,09 | 44,65 | 43,1 | 45,99 | 43,68 | 44,30 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0,47%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 0,41%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 44,30 EUR/MWh tended to decrease compared to the spot prices by an average of 0,78%.
According to the latest EIA data as of March 14, 2025, the storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 1,707 bln.c.f., which is 10% below the average for the last five years. By 2029, total export demand could grow by another 15 bln.c.f./day, according to Commodity Insights analysts. Toby Rice, CEO of Appalachian midstream producer and operator EQT, said that new LNG facilities coming online over the next few years could weaken gas markets and that U.S. producers will likely be restrained from adding supply too quickly.
At On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on March 21, 2025 were at USD 71,68/barel. This was driven by strong demand in the US and a weakening dollar, which increased buyer interest.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports from Hungary averaged 7 mln. c.m. per day, including receipts at the customs warehouse, which is 1,5 mln. c.m. less than the previous week. Due to warming, imports are declining. Exports from the customs warehouse were observed only to Moldova with an average volume of 1,5 mln.c.m. per day. Ukraine had about 5,7 bln.c.m. in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 30 mln. c. m. per day.
Interesting for the week
The French Energy Plan is a roadmap for how France will change its energy system by 2035. Currently, the French parliament is considering a bill that would allow the country’s two remaining coal-fired power plants to be converted to gas. Gazelenergie, the operator of one of the plants, welcomed the bill when it was announced. It received support from the government as well as parliamentarians from across the political spectrum in the region. Fossil fuel power plants will be needed only to cover peaks in demand and to ensure the energy.
Naftogaz signed a contract for the supply of about 100 million cubic meters of liquefied natural gas with ORLEN. This is a strategic fuel reserve for the stable passage of the 2025/2026 heating season. “Cooperation with ORLEN allows Ukraine to expand its LNG import capabilities and increase energy security. This is especially important in the context of constant russian attacks on our gas infrastructure,” said Roman Chumak, CEO of Naftogaz Group.