Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in March and April 2025 continued. A total of 9 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, D.Trading, Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Energo Zbut Trans, Kyivvodokanal, Your Gas, and Ukrzaliznytsia.
Last week, trading in March and April 2025 continued. A total of 9 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: GTS Operator of Ukraine, D.Trading, Ukrnafta, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, GSC Naftogaz Trading, Energo Zbut Trans, Kyivvodokanal, Your Gas, and Ukrzaliznytsia.
Last week, the buy and sell positions were sold. In total, 31,660 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold and the following quotation prices were formed:
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the GTS and UGS facilities. Last week, a price decrease was recorded compared to the previous period. On Friday, March 28, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 14750 excluding VAT.
European market
Last Thursday, EU diplomats held discussions on gas storage targets as EU countries ask for a more flexible approach, moving the deadline for 90% filling from November 1 to any time between October 1 and December 1. The new plan will allow countries to deviate by 5% from the 90% target for filling gas storage facilities by winter if market conditions make it prohibitively expensive to meet this target. Influenced by this proposal to introduce flexibility into the gas storage mandate, the Sum-2025 contract fell after buyer pressure eased, driven by flexible EU gas storage targets and stable LNG inflows, which helped stabilize market sentiment.
The UK NBP-TTF DA spread remains in a position that favors imports to Europe. In the UK, maintenance continues at both Åsgard and Kårstø, with the impact on Kårstø volumes ranging from 10 to 20 mcm/d between now and the summer. The maintenance of Åsgard is due to end on March 31, reducing volumes by 6 million cubic meters per day and returning to maintenance in July.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 03/27/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 42,23 | 42,97 | 40,87 | 46,21 | 43,05 | 43,07 |
| M+1 | 42,21 | 42,96 | 41,14 | 44,76 | 42,65 | 42,74 |
| Q +1 | 42,34 | 43 | 41,3 | 45,22 | 41,9 | 42,75 |
| S +1 | 42,54 | 43,2 | 41,51 | 44,42 | 42,27 | 42,79 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0.70%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 0.68%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 42.79 EUR/MWh tended to decrease by an average of 0.57% compared to the spot prices.
The May futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, was set at USD 471.67 on March 27. US dollars per thousand cubic meters. China’s LNG imports may fall this year for the first time since 2022, Bloomberg NEF reports. While this will help the EU fill its underground storage facilities, a steady drop in Chinese consumption threatens to create a glut in the region. In addition, Beijing has imposed its own 15% tariffs on LNG from the US in response to US tariffs on Chinese exports. Traders are partially reselling gas shipments destined for Chinese buyers to other markets to avoid Beijing’s duties, Bloomberg notes.
The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 447.86 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 33.62%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory as of March 26, 2025. The level of gas storage in the UK was 36%.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 78.40%.
As of March 26, 2025, LNG stocks in the EU amounted to 4.139 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
As for pipeline russian gas, the volume of supplies to Turkey is increasing. In January, russia became the largest supplier of gas to Turkey, supplying 2.78 billion cubic meters, followed by Azerbaijan and Iran with 795.39 million cubic meters and 185.97 million cubic meters, respectively. In total, in January of this year, Europe purchased EUR 833 million worth of Russian pipeline gas and EUR 1.07 billion worth of russian LNG. At the same time, according to the Ember consulting agency, last year the cost of European purchases of russian gas amounted to almost EUR 22 billion, which is more than the financial assistance provided to Ukraine.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of March 21, 2025, was 1.744 billion cubic feet, which is 6.5% below the average for the last five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 73.83/bbl on March 28, 2025. USD/barrel amid tariff-related demand concerns, although they still show the third weekly increase in a row due to a reduction in global supply.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports from Hungary averaged 6.6 mcm per day, including receipts at the customs warehouse, which is 0.4 mcm less than the previous week. Due to warming, imports are declining. Exports from the “customs warehouse” were observed only to Moldova with an average volume of 0.5 million cubic meters per day. Ukraine had about 5.6 bcm in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 20 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for th week
The Director of the Energy Community Secretariat, Artur Lorkowski, visited Ukraine last week and presented the 2024 implementation report to the Ukrainian parliament, highlighting Ukraine’s progress in adopting the Energy Community acquis as it works to integrate into the EU energy market and improve energy security. He emphasized the importance of transposing the Electricity Integration Package into national law, which is a critical step to advance market coupling efforts.
On March 26, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development approved a loan of up to EUR 270 million for Naftogaz of Ukraine to purchase gas for the next two heating seasons in Ukraine. Norway is also providing USD 95 million to finance gas imports to Ukraine to ensure adequate gas supplies for households, businesses and industry in the country, according to the Norwegian government website.
Due to russian shelling and rapid depletion of reserves, Ukraine is facing a gas crisis. Ukraine will need to import record volumes - up to 5 billion cubic meters this season - as a result of russian shelling of energy facilities and rapid depletion of reserves. Dmytro Sakharuk, who heads the D.Trading trading company, estimates the potential imports.