Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued mainly in the April 2025 contract. In total, 6 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Ukrnafta, D.Trading, MC Ukrnaftoburinnya, PPC Oil and Gas Trading, Tviy Gaz, and GTS Operator of Ukraine.
The starting prices of resources grew steadily throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of April resources in the GTS was 1% higher than on Monday.
Last week, the Naftogaz sold and bought positions. In total, 20,000 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. All these volumes were sold by MC Ukrnaftoburinnya and were related to the April resource in the GTS, the quoted prices of which last week were in the range of UAH 15415-15420 per thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids in the GTS and UGS facilities. Last week, a price increase was recorded compared to the previous period. On Friday, April 4, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 14970 excluding VAT.
European market
At the end of March, the price of futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands fell to 40.7 EUR/MWh, while at the beginning of the month (March 3) it exceeded 45 EUR/MWh. Contracts for the summer months are traded at over EUR 42/MWh.
Last Thursday, the TTF and NBP contracts posted sharp losses, driven by a broad sell-off in global financial and commodity markets. Following Trump’s announcement of the new tariffs, fears of an economic impact on energy demand have increased, especially from energy-intensive industries that are now considering closing or reducing production.
The NBP Day-Ahead price dropped by more than 2% on April 3 to close at £95.78/therm, influenced by the widespread sell-off in global financial and commodity markets observed last Thursday. In the UK, Norwegian imports increased significantly from 27 mcm/d to 43 mcm/d, driven by a sharp recovery in Langeled flows, which doubled to 30 mcm/d. Vesterled remains offline, while the Kollsnes processing plant continues to operate at reduced capacity following a recent unplanned outage.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 03.04.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 39,98 | 41,30 | 39,98 | 41,30 | 41,50 | 40,81 |
| M+1 | 40,35 | 41,61 | 39,26 | 41,14 | 39,88 | 40,45 |
| Q +1 | 40,93 | 41,99 | 39,93 | 42,24 | 40,44 | 41,11 |
| S +1 | 41,22 | 41,87 | 39,69 | 45,31 | 40,35 | 41,69 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 0.88%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.73%. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 41.69 EUR/MWh tended to increase compared to the spot prices by an average of 2.14%.
On April 3, the May futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 468.26 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 445.89 per thousand cubic meters.
Summarizing the results of the season, the winter of 2024/2025 was the coldest for Europe in the last 4 heating periods, so this winter, the reserves were depleted faster than usual. The level of gas storage in the EU as of April 2 was 34.35%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory, which is almost 40% less than at about the same time last year. The level of gas reserves in the UK amounted to 22.63%. The tightening of the market has resulted in summer gas prices being consistently higher than prices for the following winter, which eliminates financial incentives for storage deals, Bloomberg concludes.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 77.83%.
As of April 2, 2025, LNG stocks in the EU amounted to 4.259 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of March 28, 2025, was 1.773 bcf, which is 4.3% below the average for the last five years.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on April 4, 2025, were declining and trading at USD 68.87/ /barrel, as fears of a global trade war and rising OPEC+ supplies weigh heavily on oil demand expectations.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports from Hungary averaged 3 million cubic meters per day, including receipts to the customs warehouse, half as much as the previous week. Imports are declining due to warming weather. Exports from the “customs warehouse” were observed only to Moldova with an average volume of 0.5 million cubic meters per day. Ukraine had about 5.5 bcm in storage facilities. Withdrawals amounted to about 10 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Gas producers are asking for lower gas quality requirements to recover from the destruction caused by russian attacks. The Association of Gas Producers asks the national regulator NEURC to reduce the requirements for the quality of natural gas entering the system, as the russian attacks prevent producers from meeting certain quality obligations.
The Nord Stream pipeline will not be put back into operation, and leading German politicians are not discussing this possibility. This was assured by acting German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Kyiv on April 1. “It is absolutely clear that this gas pipeline cannot be restored. This decision is in the hands of Germany,” Burbock said.
Dmytro Abramovich, member of the Board and Commercial Director of Naftogaz Group, said that during the last heating season Ukraine lost 700 million cubic meters of its own production as a result of russian shelling. At a meeting of the relevant parliamentary committee, he announced a figure of 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of imports by November 1. According to him, in February-March this year, the company imported almost 800 million cubic meters.