Gas price. Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the past week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have been rising rapidly, in contrast to the trends in European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in May, June, and July resource 2025 continued. In total, 5 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: LLC GAS SUPPLY COMPANY NAFTOGAZ TRADING, PRJSC ’’MHP EKO ENERGY’’, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Eru Trading, AC MINERALS LLC.
Starting prices of resources were growing throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of June resources in the GTS was 8,85% higher than on Monday.
Last week, purchase positions were sold. Totaly 2100 th. c. m. of natural gas were sold. The entire volume was purchased by GTS Operator of Ukraine. At the same time, 600 th. c. m. was June resource, and 2500 th. c. m. was the July resource in the GTS on a postpaid basis. Prices ranged from UAH 16341,67 to UAH 17695 per th. c. m.
On the short-term natural gas market of UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday market and the day-ahead market in the GTS. During the week, 5 agreements were concluded with a total volume of 100 th. c. m. The weighted average price of the short-term product on Friday, May 16, amounted to UAH 16630 excl. VAT.
European market
In the context of the global economy (Trump’s tariff negotiations) and government/organizational policies (storage goals), prices have remained within a clear range over the past month, with both weather and LNG supplies still being key drivers of summer contract prices.
On Thursday, gas markets showed a slight increase across all forward curves, continuing to trade in a narrow range. Market sentiment was weakened by confirmation that president putin will not attend the upcoming peace negotiations on Ukraine, casting doubt on any short-term settlement. Traders are closely watching the outcome for potential risk premium direction and broader energy pricing.
As of the May 15 session, the current TTF premium to NBP is GBP 5,17 per ton, which is encouraging LNG shipments from UK to Europe.
In a potentially market calming development, the key country was Germany, which lowered its storage target from 90% to 80% by November 1. European Commission is also considering options to either lower the European target to 85% or extend the deadline to December.
Contract prices with delivery in respective period, EUR/MWh., 15.05.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 36,02 | 38,47 | 34,94 | 39,71 | 38,25 | 37,48 |
| M+1 | 36,15 | 38,41 | 35,35 | 38,73 | 35,76 | 36,88 |
| Q +1 | 36,53 | 38,34 | 35,69 | 39,21 | 36,05 | 37,16 |
| S +1 | 38,26 | 39,15 | 36,83 | 41,88 | 37,52 | 38,73 |
Month-ahead contracts at all analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 1,52%. Quarter-ahead prices were 0,76% lower than spot prices on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 38,73 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by an average of 3,39%.
In any case, electricity demand will decline in the summer, which will put pressure on gas prices, especially during periods of excessive solar generation.
In general, from June to August this year, the forecast shows hot and dry weather in Northwest Europe, as well as low wind speeds, which leads to the risk of thunderstorms and increased precipitation at times. Similar forecasts are observed in the United States, but with a risk of hurricanes towards the end of this summer. These weather factors increase the risk of a lack of cooling rivers for efficient nuclear generation, slower recharge rates for hydroelectric power plants, and a general lack of water in rivers for coal transportation to parts of Europe. In addition, we may see limited wind power generation, and possibly, if there are hurricanes in the US, a reduction in LNG supplies to Europe. The main saving grace is the annual cooler weather forecasts in Asian countries, particularly in India, China and Japan, which may reduce their demand for LNG supplies this summer.
NWE (Northwest Europe) is currently expecting a total of 64 LNG cargoes this month, which is 26 LNG cargoes less than in May 2024. However, as noted in yesterday’s report, this does not slow down the rate of storage fill-ups in the EU, which are occurring at a faster pace than in previous years as warm weather prevails.
June futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on May 15 at USD 411,63 per th.c.m. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 377,80 per th. c. m.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 43,67%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 41%.
European LNG terminals were operating on May 14 with an average capacity of 77,12%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of May 14, 2025 amounted to 5,491 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors. According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of May 9, 2025, was 2,255 bcf, which is 2,6% higher than the average for the last five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on May 16, 2025 were trading at USD 64,42/barrel on expectations of a potential nuclear deal between the US and Iran that would ease sanctions. This news, along with rising US crude oil inventories, counteracts the upward trend in the Brent price observed from May 7 to 13.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came from Poland and Hungary. Since May 15, Slovakia has become the third destination. Total daily volumes ranged from 13,8 to 14,9 million cubic meters per day. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 6,05 bcm in storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection amounted to about 30 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
At a meeting on May 13, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine approved the Regulation on the information database of natural gas consumption in accordance with the Law of Ukraine “On Ensuring Commercial Accounting of Natural Gas”. This was announced by the representative of the Cabinet of Ministers in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Taras Melnychuk, ExPro reports. Information database of natural gas consumption is created to ensure control over the use of imported natural gas and domestically produced natural gas and provides for automated accounting of natural gas consumers (consumption objects), the volume of natural gas consumed by them, as well as related natural gas market entities. The owner of the information base and exclusive intellectual property rights to its software is the state, represented by the Ministry of Energy.
The latest analysis by the Ukrainian GTS Operator clearly demonstrates the imbalance in the cost of transporting LNG to Ukraine from different European terminals. Tariffs on the Trans-Balkan route - from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova - reach more than 13 EUR/MWh, while from Poland, Lithuania or Croatia - only 3,9-6,7 EUR/MWh. Therefore, this kills any sense of importing LNG through Greek terminals, Energy Frontline reports. The reason is that the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline passes through several countries, and each national GTS operator imposes its own tariff. And this tariff includes the costs of servicing not only a part of the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, but the entire national GTS of the transit countries. As a result, the total cost of transit becomes commercially unprofitable, and the existing infrastructure remains unused.