Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for May, June, July 2025 and Q4 2025. In total, 8 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Gazenergo-Trade, JSC Ukrzaliznytsia, GSC Naftogaz Trading, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Energo Zbut Trans, Eru Trading, Tepla Energy Company, and AK Minerals.
The starting prices of resources were mostly growing throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of May resources in the GTS was 5.77% higher than on Monday. Last week, only buy positions were sold. In total, 1500 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Of this amount, 200 thousand cubic meters of June’s resource was purchased by Energo Zbut Trans, and 1300 thousand cubic meters of July’s resource was purchased by the GTS Operator of Ukraine.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday market in the GTS and UGS facilities. During the week, 11 deals were concluded with a total volume of 371 thousand cubic meters. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, May 23, amounted to UAH 17100 excluding VAT.
European market
Last week’s Norwegian outages, although planned, forced the market to react to tight European supplies, and the effects of the reduced Norwegian flows were felt more strongly than initially expected. Gas contracts fluctuated from up to down as the culmination of a major planned maintenance outage in Norway caught some of the market by surprise early last week, leading to a 5% increase in prices for June and for contracts for the third quarter of 2025. Rising prices in Asia are prompting shippers to redirect vessels and deliver cargo to a more profitable region rather than the European continent.
Additionally, it also led to the halt of EU efforts to rebuild gas storage last week and a rise in prices along the curve. As Norwegian flows resume, it is expected that the filling rate will increase again ahead of the winter months.
Demand remains weak, but any easing of trade barriers could lead to faster-than-expected price increases.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 05/22/2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 37,19 | 39,43 | 36,10 | 42,95 | 40,19 | 39,17 |
| M+1 | 37,16 | 39,35 | 36,38 | 41,92 | 37,04 | 38,37 |
| Q +1 | 37,53 | 39,45 | 36,67 | 40,71 | 37,31 | 38,33 |
| S +1 | 39,09 | 40,09 | 37,72 | 44,28 | 39,09 | 40,05 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 1.95%. Quarter-ahead prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 1.97%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 40.05 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by an average of 2.32%.
The weather forecast for June is expected to remain comfortably above seasonal normal values. This could support storage injections. However, market experts point out that, combined with the possibility of heat waves on the European continent in the third quarter limiting the use of water to cool nuclear reactors in France, this leads to higher natural gas prices and similar scenarios compared to the period of the “energy crisis” in 2022. In the short term, businesses should be prepared for price risk on windless, cloudy days when gas dependence peaks.
The July futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on May 22 at USD 442.13 per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 413.13 per thousand cubic meters.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 45.27%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 44%.
European LNG terminals were operating on May 21 with an average capacity of 77.10%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of May 21, 2025 amounted to 4.939 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
The storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of May 16, 2025, was 2.375 bcf, which is 3.9% higher than the average for the last five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices were trading at USD 64.09 on May 23, 2025. USD/barrel amid reports of an increase in OPEC production in July. The recent G7 meeting ended without any signs that the group would reduce the Russian limit from $60 to $50. USD to $50 USD per barrel. Following the EU/UK proposals last week, the G7 meeting ended with no sign that the group would reduce the Russian limit from USD 60 to USD 50 per barrel, leaving the oil market with conflicting drivers.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction during the week amounted to about 17 million cubic meters, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 6.3 billion cubic meters in storage. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection was about 36 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
On May 20, 2025, new terms and conditions of the section allowing trading in imported (customs-cleared) natural gas - “Imported Natural Gas” (formerly called “Purchases of Imported Natural Gas”) - came into force on the UEEX. On May 20, 2025, new terms and conditions of the section allowing trading in imported (customs-cleared) natural gas - “Imported Natural Gas” (formerly called “Purchases of Imported Natural Gas”) - came into force on the UEEX.
The auction for booking quarterly capacities for natural gas imports from Hungary to Ukraine, which took place on the RBP platform, ended after 7 days, according to the platform. The auction booked 9.74 million cubic meters per day of guaranteed capacity to enter the Ukrainian GTS at the Bereg point on the border with Hungary for the 3rd quarter of 2025. As reported, the auction lasted 7 days amid high demand for capacity from importers. Thus, 99.7% of the offered capacity was booked at the quarterly auction. Against the backdrop of high demand, the cost of booking capacity also increased to EUR 1.36/MWh, which is 4.3 times higher than the starting price of EUR 0.317/MWh.