Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, there was an increase in the activity of participants in the auction on conditions of sharp price growth, while, European quotations showed the opposite trend.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, May and June 2025 resources trading and subsequent months continued. Initiators also formed starting positions for quarterly contracts - the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In total, 8 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: «ENERHO ZBUT TRANS» LLC, GSC Naftogaz Trading, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Kyivvodokanal JSC, TEPLA ENERGY COMPANY LLC, Eru Trading, Gazenergo-Trade, and Ukrzaliznytsia.
Resources starting prices in the medium and long-term market section were growing throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of June resources in the GTS was 4,81% higher than on Monday.
Last week, both sell and purchase positions were sold. In total, 14210 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold, 9.5 times more than the previous week. Of this amount, 13500 thousand cubic meters were purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator. Eru Trading and Kyivvodokanal were also successful. Last week’s bidders formed the quotation prices shown in the chart below.
In the imported gas trading sections, Tepla Energy Company and the Ukrainian gas transmission system operator opened purchase and sale positions. No weighted average prices were formed in these sections.
On UEEX short-term natural gas market, participants placed bids on the within day market in the GTS and UGS. During the week, 7 agreements were concluded with a total volume of 87 thousand cubic meters. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, May 30, amounted to UAH 19500 excluding VAT.
European market
In the last week of May, energy markets continued to fluctuate between stability and volatility.
Although the fundamentals of domestic supply are generally maintained, demand-side pressures, climate risks, and geopolitical uncertainty fueled short-term volatility and raised longer-term questions about energy security. EU has confirmed its intention to stop all imports of russian gas even if a peace agreement is signed, increasing uncertainty about long-term supplies.
Last week, it was confirmed that maintenance of the Norwegian gas fields has been completed, with exports continuing at a steady pace, but with minor interruptions due to unplanned maintenance at Kollsnes. In addition, gas-fired generation is hardly needed on the grid at present, with renewables growing.
NBP/TTF DA spread widened further during last Thursday’s session, closing at a discount of GBP 4,5 per ton, which stimulated LNG shipments from the UK coast towards Europe.
Temperatures above seasonal norms in Northwest Europe and the UK reduced demand. Last Friday, a US court reinstated President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Europe, initially blocked on May 29 in the morning. This again threatens European industrial production, so the market can expect further declines in energy demand across the region. Overall, market sentiment remains highly sensitive to any new developments.
Contracts price with delivery in respetive term, EUR/MWh, 29.05.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 35,68 | 38,42 | 34,73 | 40,99 | 40,11 | 37,99 |
| M+1 | 36,00 | 38,48 | 35,26 | 41,43 | 36,11 | 37,46 |
| Q +1 | 36,58 | 38,89 | 35,73 | 40,66 | 36,69 | 37,71 |
| S +1 | 38,22 | 39,32 | 36,82 | 44,28 | 39,38 | 39,60 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 1,27%. Quarter-ahead prices were 0,54% lower than spot prices on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 39,60 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by an average of 4,33%.
July futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on May 29 at USD 440,16 per thousand cubic meters. LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 411,88 per thousand cubic meters. LNG flows are still maintained, but some cargoes have been redirected to Asia, a sign of ongoing global competition and a reminder of the “delicate” balance in transcontinental gas trade.
European storage levels have begun to ease fears as they approach 50% full. Although this is low for this time of year, injection rates are now around 0,2-0,3% per day, suggesting that fullness should be reached by the end of the fall. This would be a bearish factor for the Winter 25 and Summer 26 contracts inclusive. The level of gas storage in the EU was 47,15%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 41%.
European LNG terminals were operating on May 28 with an average capacity of 77,6%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of May 28, 2025 amounted to 5,340 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of May 23, 2025, was 2,476 billion cubic feet, which is 3.9% higher than the average over the past five years.
On the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on May 30, 2025 were trading at USD 63,03 /barrel and recorded the second weekly decline due to OPEC+’s proposal to increase production again.
Gas balance in Ukraine
During the week, natural gas imports from the European direction amounted to 20,2 million cubic meters, from Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 6,6 bcm in storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection was about 40 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
The auction for the reservation of monthly capacity for June for the transportation of natural gas from Greece to Ukraine under a new joint product of the GTS Operators of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece ended with a zero result - no capacity was booked for June. This is evidenced by the data of the capacity booking platform, ExPro reports.
According to the GTS Operator of Ukraine, the indicative tariff for the new transportation product was 7,8 EUR/MWh (including the cost of LNG regasification), which is 20% less than the current tariffs of EUR 9,77 MWh. The new tariff includes a 25% discount for the monthly tariff of Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Moldova, and a 46% discount for Ukraine.
Earlier, the NEURC decided to approve the provision of a joint product of transportation services to the Ukrainian GTS Operator together with the gas transmission system operators of the Republic of Bulgaria (Bulgartransgaz), the Hellenic Republic (DESFA SA), the Republic of Moldova (VestMoldTransgaz SRL) and Romania (Transgaz SA). The relevant resolution was adopted at a meeting of the regulator on Tuesday.
The NEURC explained that this decision provides for a single auction to allocate capacities at all points of the Trans-Balkan corridor along the route of natural gas transportation from Greece to Ukraine - approximately 3 million cubic meters per day.
Ukraine’s GTS operator has agreed with Poland’s gas transmission system operator Gaz-System to extend the guaranteed capacity at the entry point to Ukraine until October 1, 2026. “GTSOU and Gaz-System, the GTS operator of the Republic of Poland, have extended the guaranteed capacity for entry into Ukraine in the amount of 6,0 million cubic meters (at a temperature of 0°C) and 6,4 million cubic meters (at a temperature of +20°C) per day until October 1, 2026,” the statement said. It is noted that the interconnector with Poland allows Ukraine to offer maximum capacities of 2,2 billion to 2,3 billion cubic meters of gas per year, depending on the air temperature. The Polish direction is important for access to LNG supplies from around the world through Polish terminals.