Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine and on European markets were stable. Trading activity was low at the beginning of the month.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in May and June resource 2025 continued. In total, 4 companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: AK Minerals, PPC Naftogaz Trading, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Eru Trading.
The starting prices of resources were growing throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of May resources in the GTS was 1,02% higher than on Monday.
Last week, position for sale was sold. AK Minerals sold 300 th. c. m. of May resources in the UGS at a price of UAH 16084 per th. c. m., excl. VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday market in the GTS. During the week, 7 deals were concluded with a total volume of 245 th. c. m. The weighted average price of the DAM on Friday, May 9, amounted to UAH 15000 excl. VAT.
European market
Last week, gas markets continued to review the EU’s planned phase-out of russian gas in the coming years.
Since the beginning of May, the markets have been balancing competing forces: stable weather conditions and limited LNG supplies. Further support for the growth curve may be reduced by the rate of gas injection into storage facilities in Europe from 0,4% per day to 0,2% per day, which will increase the burden on futures contracts to fill EU storage facilities before the start of the winter period.
The weather forecast for May is expected to remain above seasonal normal levels for most of it. This may support injections into storage facilities. On the other hand, risks remain in the form of low wind generation, which maintains dependence on gas and increased global competition for LNG cargoes.
The NBP-TTF spread was the widest in the last 2 years on May 8, with the continental Day-Ahead premium over the UK market increasing to £5.28/therm. The outflow of cargoes to Europe led to the fact that only two LNG cargoes are scheduled to arrive in the UK in May.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the relevant period, EUR/MWh, 08.05.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 36,08 | 38,54 | 35,33 | 37,45 | 38,49 | 37,18 |
| M+1 | 36,06 | 37,96 | 35,34 | 37,25 | 35,87 | 36,50 |
| Q +1 | 36,46 | 38,04 | 35,67 | 38,02 | 36,05 | 36,85 |
| S +1 | 38,16 | 39,18 | 36,68 | 41,60 | 37,32 | 38,59 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 1,77%. Quarter-ahead prices were 0,82% lower than spot prices on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 38,59 EUR/MWh were higher than spot prices by an average of 3,86%.
Taking into account, that most of cargos are direcred to the Atlantic to the Pacific, competition between the two basins is set to become even fiercer, as Europe needs to secure up to 250 additional LNG cargoes just to replenish its dangerously low gas reserves before winter. June futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on May 8 at USD 409,91. USD per th. c. m. The LNG North West Europe Marker closed last Thursday at USD 377,87 per th. c. m.
The level of gas storage in the EU was 41,84%, according to the Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. The level of gas storage in the UK was 44%.
European LNG terminals were operating on May 7 with an average capacity of 77,15%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of May 7, 2025 amounted to 5,785 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventory.
According to the latest EIA data, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, as of May 2, 2025, was 2,145 bcf, which is 1,4% higher than the average for the last five years.
In the related oil market, Brent crude oil prices on May 9, 2025 were trading above recent lows seen after the oil market was depressed by global tariff sanctions, and were at 63,83 USD/barrel.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Last week, natural gas imports came from Poland and Hungary. Total daily volumes ranged from 12,8 to 13,4 million cubic meters per day. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. There were no exports from the customs warehouse. Ukraine had about 5,9 bcm in storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection was in the range of 26-32 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
European Union intends to propose a ban on Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, seeking to sever ties with the region’s once largest gas supplier, Bloomberg reports. Bloomberg notes that the biggest problem is the growth of Russian LNG supplies, which have risen to record levels after Gazprom significantly reduced pipeline gas supplies. Gas imports from Russia have fallen to about 19% of the EU’s total gas purchases last year from more than 40% before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In order to move forward, the EU plans to propose in June a complete ban on all Russian gas, both under old contracts and spot purchases. These measures could come into effect no later than the end of 2025.
Romania’s OMV Petrom has signed a three-year contract for the supply of natural gas from the Black Sea Neptun Deep project with Moldova’s state-owned Energocom. Romania Ministry of Energy informs it. The signed contract provides for the supply of natural gas for three years to a virtual trading point (VTP) in Romania, with the final destination is Moldova. The supply volumes are not yet specified. The gas will be supplied from the Neptun Deep offshore field, which has estimated reserves of over 100 bcm.