During November 3–7, 2025, natural gas prices in Ukraine generally mirrored the dynamics of European hubs, while approximately 2.8 million cubic meters of gas were sold on the domestic market on the UEEX, and the GTS Operator purchased another 52 million cubic meters in the Cross-Border, Customs Warehouse section. European markets remained stable amid warm weather, high storage levels (82.97%), and balanced LNG flows, while the average TTF spot price was around €31.5/MWh. Gas imports to Ukraine increased to 23.65 million cubic meters per day, there were no exports, and approximately 13.2 billion cubic meters remained in underground storage facilities.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for November, December 2025, and January 2026. In total, four companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Ukrnaftoburinnya, Ukrnafta, LTK Elektrum, and the Ukrainian GTS Operator.
Starting prices for resources on the Medium- and Long-Term Market section showed mixed dynamics during the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price for resources in the UGS was 0.04% higher than on Monday. Over the past week, positions for sale were realized. A total of 2,800 thousand cubic meters of natural gas was sold. The sellers were Ukrnafta and MC Ukrnaftoburinnya. Participants in the trading section formed the following quotation prices:
The Ukrainian TSO also made purchases in the “Cross-border, customs warehouse” section. Last week, approximately 52 million cubic meters of natural gas were purchased with transfer at the border point at prices ranging from EUR 39 to EUR 39.6 per MWh.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the intraday market in the GTS and UGS. A total of eight deals were concluded with a total volume of 121,000 cubic meters. A decrease in the weighted average price of SSP was recorded during the week.
European market
Last week saw a reduction in supply and an increase in export demand. Norwegian flows fell by 6 million cubic meters per day, possibly due to limited production at Kollnes, as LNG shipments fell by 11 million cubic meters per day compared to Thursday. This is accompanied by an increase in exports to Belgium in response to the growth of the European gas premium over the British market to 6.3 pence/therm. On Friday morning, prices fell amid “unusually warm” weather and sufficient supply, according to Reuters.
Temperatures across Europe have been more favorable for market bears, with the northwest of the continent expected to see comfortably above-seasonal temperatures until mid-November. These warmer temperatures, combined with large LNG flows, contributed to net gas injections into storage facilities across Europe, with EU storage levels reaching 82.97% on November 5. As a result, the average regasification in the EU in October increased to ~4.2 TWh/day (compared to ~3.9 in September).
The factor supporting Europe in early November was the narrow JKM-TTF spread, which did little to encourage the reorientation of cargoes to Asia. The December LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 399.35 per thousand cubic meters on October 30. Futures for LNG delivered to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 367.67/thousand cubic meters.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 06.11.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,95 | 34,28 | 31,51 | 36,64 | 33,84 |
| M+1 | 32,82 | 34,38 | 31,54 | 37,57 | 34,08 |
| Q +1 | 32,95 | 34,32 | 31,58 | 37,72 | 34,14 |
| S +1 | 31,35 | 33,21 | 30,13 | 35,68 | 32,59 |
Contracts for the month ahead showed different trends in spot prices on all analyzed hubs, with an average increase of 0.64%. Prices for the quarter ahead were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.82%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of EUR 32.59/MWh, tended to decline by an average of 3.75% compared to spot price.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 50.0% on November 5. Due to a shortage of tonnage and flight delays (particularly via Egypt), LNG freight rates rose significantly, by ~50% week-on-week: Atlantic freight rates, estimated for standard 174,000 cubic meter tankers, the most common type on the market, stood at USD 61,500 per day on Tuesday.
According to the latest EIA data as of October 31, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 3.915 billion cubic feet, which is 4.3% higher than the average for the last five years.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 23.65 million cubic meters per day (+2.8% from the previous week) with minor fluctuations throughout the week. Imports came from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Imports from Moldova resumed in November. Imports were mainly from Hungary and Poland. There were no exports. Ukraine’s storage facilities held approximately 13.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas, the same as the previous week. The withdrawal season began, with withdrawals amounting to approximately 3 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Senior US officials on Thursday urged European allies to accelerate the reduction of russian gas consumption by improving regional gas pipelines and increasing imports of American LNG across Europe. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum participated in discussions in Greece alongside more than 80 US officials, EU energy ministers, and leading LNG executives, organized by the Atlantic Council. Burgum noted the United States’ strong commitment to replacing Russian gas. This initiative is consistent with President Donald Trump’s strategy of leveraging America’s status as a leading exporter of LNG, linking energy costs to trade with Europe and efforts to regulate the war in Ukraine.