Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
During the last week UEEX trading activities were increased, prices also tended to rise.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week October, November 2025 and subsecuent months resource trading continued. In general purchase and sale positions of natural gas were formed by 4 Companies: Ukrnafta, LLC LTC ELECTRUM, Kyiv Underground, Ukrzaliznytsya.
Starting prices for resources tended to rise moderately. As a result, as of Friday weighted average price of October resource was higher than Monday indicator for 3,45%.
During the last week positions for purchase and sale were sold. Ingeneral 7560 th. c. m. Of natural as were sold. Of which Ukrnafta sold 5,2 mln. c. m. of November resource in UGS. In general prices of sold positions last week were in the range of UAH 20050-20907 per th. c. m. excl. VAT.
On UEEX short-term natural gas market participants were formed applications on within-day market of GTS and UGS. In general 18 Agreements were concluded with general volume of 525 th.c.m. By October 17, there was a slight increase in the weighted average price of short-term product - +1.3% from the October 10 figure.
European market
The week on the gas markets was marked by a period of low volatility, with a slight drop of less than 1% М+1 Contracts. The bearish sentiment was partly triggered by US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on imports from China, which caused the Nasdaq index to fall 3,5% after Trump’s statement. More conciliatory statements on social media over the weekend led to a recovery in shares. Gas markets reaction was more subdued right after this news, however, pessimism regarding global trade flows continues to weigh on commodity futures across the entire hydrocarbon complex. Against the backdrop of these events in the UK, on October 14, just over two months before the start of the delivery period, the contract for the first quarter of 2026 reached a 19-month low, trading at 82,2 pence/term.
The extension of the 1,5 GW shutdown on the IFA interconnector (connecting the UK and France) until the end of January 2026 provided additional support to gas contracts during Thursday’s session on October 16: November and December Contracts increased by almost 2% during the day. This news stimulated risk hedging by gas-fired power plants, leading to higher prices on gas markets. Additionally, concerns about supply disruptions also lifted the forward market after Russian drones and missiles struck DTEK and Naftogaz facilities in Ukraine’s Poltava region on Thursday night, prompting Ukraine to consider increasing gas imports during the winter period. However, ample LNG supply balanced out this price increase on European gas markets.
Prices of Contracts with delivery at appropriate term, EUR/MWh, 16.10.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,66 | 34,74 | 32,64 | 40,27 | 35,33 |
| M+1 | 33,38 | 34,62 | 32,39 | 37,94 | 34,58 |
| Q +1 | 33,71 | 34,66 | 32,51 | 38,64 | 34,88 |
| S +1 | 31,81 | 33,7 | 30,5 | 36,15 | 33,04 |
Contracts for the month ahead showed the same trend in spot prices on all analyzed hubs, falling by an average of 1,93%. Prices for the quarter ahead were lower than spot prices by an average of 1,13%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of EUR 33,04/MWh, were lower than spot prices by an average of 6,32%.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 52.0% on October 16. Last week, LNG supplies to Europe reached record levels for October, as global production continues to grow even before a significant wave of additional export capacity comes online in 2026. Egypt’s floating storage facility filled up last week, meaning that around 20 shipments are likely to be delayed until next year. This frees up capacity for deliveries to Europe. Thus, significant LNG flows are also putting pressure on gas prices.
As of October 10, 2025, LNG stocks in the EU amounted to 4,699 million m³ LNG, according to data Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors (ALSI) by GIE.
According to the latest EIA data, as of October 10, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the US, was 3,721 billion cubic feet, which is 4,3% higher than the average for the last five years.
Brent crude oil traded at USD 60,41 per barrel on October 17, down 0,5% on the day and reaching its lowest level since May this year after four losing sessions out of the last five amid easing concerns about the situation in the Middle East. Crude oil inventories rose by 3,5 million barrels last week amid lower refinery utilization, significantly higher than the expected increase of 288000 barrels, indicating much weaker demand for this commodity than previously anticipated.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe amounted to 23 million cubic meters per day (+0,6 million cubic meters compared to last week). Imports came from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Hungarian and Polish imports accounted for the bulk of imports. There were no exports. There were about 13,1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. Withdrawals were practically absent. Injections amounted to about 14 million cubic meters per day.
Public procurements
Last week, 5 tender procedures on natural gas purchase by budgetary institutions and state-owned enterprises were conducted. In general, In total, 471 120,73 cubic meters of natural gas worth UAH 10 041 454,77 were sold through the largest tenders. The largest contract was awarded to GAZENERGO-TRADE LLC, which will supply 384920,00 cubic meters of natural gas to the Dnipro City Council’s Centralized Procurement Organization at an initial price of 21,28 UAH/m3. of the Dnipro City Council 384 920,00 cubic meters of natural gas at an initial price of 21,28 UAH/cubic meter. The average price increased to 21,42 UAH per cubic meter. Prices ranged from 21,28 to 21,78 UAH per cubic meter excluding VAT.