November resource prices in Ukraine increased, 9.7 million cubic meters were sold. In Europe, spot prices were about 32 EUR/MWh, volatility was caused by weather forecasts, sanctions (EU 19th package) and a decrease in production in Norway. The filling of the EU UGS was 82,82% of the technical level, Ukraine accumulated over 13 billion cubic meters and began the selection season.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, October and November 2025 resources trading continued. In general, the following companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Ukrnafta, Energo Zbut Trans, Tepla Energetichna Kompaniya, JV BNK, etc.
Starting prices of resources increased during the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the November resource in the GTS was higher than Monday’s figure by 3,45% and amounted to UAH 23425 excluding VAT.
TEPLA ENERGY COMPANY LLC entered the auction with a proposal to sell imported natural gas in the same section with delivery in November in the GTS.
During the past week, exclusively sell positions were realized. In general, 9700 th. c. m. of natural gas were sold (+28% from the previous week). This entire volume was sold by Ukrnafta, its November resource in underground storage facilities. In general, the prices of sold positions last week were in the range of 21085-21415 UAH/thousand cubic meters excluding VAT, which is more than 1000 UAH higher than the prices of the previous week.
On the short-term natural gas market of the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, participants formed orders on the intraday market in the GTS and UGS. In total, deals were concluded for a total volume of 396 thousand cubic meters (-25% compared to the previous week). By October 24, an increase in the weighted average price of the short-term product was recorded - +7,3% from the figure on October 17.
European market
Geopolitics continued to provide plenty of headlines but little certainty last week. While forward-month gas futures fell ~2% on Wednesday amid forecasts of warmer temperatures in the UK and Europe, signaling subdued demand for gas in November, they rose on Thursday, coinciding with the confirmation of the EU’s 19th sanctions package, which will ban imports of Russian LNG from 2027, adding a small geopolitical risk premium to European hubs. This trend was further driven by rising domestic demand and reduced production in Norway following the temporary closure of the Oseberg field.
British gas market followed the European market on Thursday after the US announced sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft, the two largest Russian oil companies. US gas prices rose to $3.46 per million BTU, 20% higher than the lows recorded on October 17. A continuation of the upward trend in US gas could lead to higher LNG prices and higher supply costs during the winter.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh., 24.10.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | Average value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,31 | 34,83 | 32,42 | 39,68 | 35,06 |
| M+1 | 33,519 | 34,75 | 32,44 | 38,30 | 34,75 |
| Q +1 | 33,94 | 34,99 | 32,78 | 38,58 | 35,07 |
| S +1 | 32,12 | 33,96 | 30,91 | 36,42 | 33,35 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices – a decrease of 0,75% on average. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by 0,17% on average. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 33,35 EUR/MWh had a tendency to decrease compared to spot prices by 4,73% on average.
US sanctions coincide with the EU’s decision to impose its 19th package of sanctions on Russia, suspending all short-term LNG supply contracts for six months and completely banning Russian LNG from January 2027, a year earlier than scheduled.
Further down the curve, prices fell on Friday morning across most contracts, with declines seen from the summer Sum-26 contract to the winter Win-28 contract, indicating that the previous price increase may be driven primarily by short-term fundamental prices.
The fillimg rate of EU gas storage facilities fell to 82,82% on 22 October, 9% below the 5-year average. EU storage situation has remained unchanged for a month at 82%. Two competing factors are behind this static figure: the week before last, European gas demand exceeded seasonal expectations by more than 10%, but LNG supplies have already reached the level of the first half of this year. Europe is likely to enter the heating season with the lowest occupancy rate since 2015 and recorded the earliest week of net withdrawals since 2020.
December LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 403,29 per thousand cubic meters on October 23. Futures for LNG delivered to North West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 375,36/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating at an average capacity of 51,0% on October 22.
EU LNG stocks as of October 22, 2025 were 4,874 million cubic meters of LNG, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from the European direction came in at an average of 15 million cubic meters per day (-8 million cubic meters compared to the previous period) with significant fluctuations during the week. Imports were present from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Imports from Poland had significant fluctuations due to repair work. The basis of imports was the Hungarian direction. There was no export. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained about 13,1 billion cubic meters of natural gas - approximately the same as last week. On October 22, 1 million cubic meters of natural gas were withdrawn from the underground storage facilities.
Interesting for the week
Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive will also enter into force in 2027 - EU legislation requiring large companies operating in Europe or selling in the EU to consider human rights and environmental risks across their operations and supply chains, with fines of up to 5%. The US and Qatar have called for a review of this Directive, citing risks to LNG trade deals, and the EU has since agreed to review the law. Any disruptions to LNG supplies in 2027 due to Russian sanctions or cuts in supplies from the US and Qatar could support gas prices in Europe as countries seek alternative, potentially more expensive, suppliers.