Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine fluctuated in line with supply and demand on the domestic market, against a backdrop of mixed fundamental factors. On European markets, the decline in spot prices was partially offset by high Norwegian gas supplies and stable LNG imports, while storage levels remained above 82%. In Ukraine, imports from European destinations increased to 23 million cubic meters per day, while storage reserves remained at around 13.1 billion cubic meters, indicating relative stability in the domestic gas balance.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for November and December 2025 resources. In total, seven companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: LTC Electrum, Ukrnafta, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Kyivvodokanal, Ukrnaftoburinnya, Energycenter, and BNK.
Last week, trading continued for November and December 2025 resources. In total, seven companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: LTC Electrum, Ukrnafta, GTS Operator of Ukraine, Kyivvodokanal, Ukrnaftoburinnya, Energycenter, and BNK.
Over the past week, positions for sale and purchase were executed. On the “Medium- and Long-Term Market” section, 5,316 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. Of these, 4,200,000 cubic meters of resources were sold in November by Ukrnafta and Ukrnaftoburinnya. The quoted prices shown in the chart below were formed.
The Ukrainian TSO also resumed purchases in the Cross-Border, Customs Warehouse section. On October 31, approximately 9 million cubic meters of natural gas were purchased with delivery at the border with Slovakia at a price of EUR 38.4/MWh.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants formed bids on the within-day market in the GTS. A total of 14 agreements were concluded with a total volume of 510 thousand cubic meters. By October 31, there was no significant change in the weighted average price of SSP.
European market
Last week, coordinated announcements by the EU and the US regarding sanctions on fossil fuel exports from russia instilled a bullish mood in the markets. The EU has officially adopted its 19th package of sanctions against russia, including a ban on russian LNG imports from January 1, 2027. The US has also announced measures to restrict fossil fuel exports from russia.
Increased deliveries via the Norwegian pipeline to Europe put pressure on gas market prices on Thursday. For example, the NBP spot price fell 6.3% to 73.50 pence/therm, reaching its lowest level since early October amid stable fundamentals, as maintenance at Norway’s Troll field was completed ahead of schedule. As a result, the maintenance schedule in Norway was relaxed, and the total reduction in supplies amounted to only 14 million cubic meters per day. On the forward curve, the contract for delivery in the summer of 2026 fell by 1.3% to 75.19 pence/term, due to sufficient LNG supplies supporting a balanced supply. LNG supplies to Europe remained close to seasonal record levels, at around 4,400 GWh/day (396 million cubic meters/day).
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 31.10.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,06 | 33,54 | 30,66 | 39,38 | 33,91 |
| M+1 | 32,59 | 33,74 | 31,41 | 37,55 | 33,82 |
| Q +1 | 32,73 | 33,82 | 31,56 | 37,88 | 34,00 |
| S +1 | 31,16 | 32,9 | 29,92 | 35,58 | 32,39 |
Contracts for the month ahead on all analyzed hubs showed a different trend in spot prices, rising by an average of 0.01%. Prices for the quarter ahead were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.51%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of EUR 32.39/MWh, were lower than spot prices by an average of 4.20%.
Weather remains the main source of uncertainty in Northwest Europe and the UK, despite the absence of forecasts for prolonged cold spells. Gas and electricity demand forecasts remain below seasonal norms as post-crisis consumption habits become permanent.
The fill rate of EU gas storage facilities as of October 29 fell from a peak of 83.15% in early October to 82.79%.
The December LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 398.45 per thousand cubic meters on October 30. Futures for LNG supplied to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 371.43/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 52.0% on October 29.
LNG stocks in the EU stood at 5.191 million cubic meters of LNG as of October 29, 2025, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors (ALSI) by GIE. According to the latest EIA data as of October 24, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 3.882 billion cubic feet, which is 4.6% higher than the average for the last five years.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe averaged 23 million cubic meters per day (+8 million cubic meters compared to the previous period) with minor fluctuations during the week. Imports came from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Imports from Poland resumed after the completion of repair work. Hungarian and Polish sources accounted for the bulk of imports. There were no exports. Ukraine’s storage facilities held approximately 13.2 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Small volumes of gas were injected into storage facilities (5-9 million cubic meters), while withdrawals were practically non-existent.
Interesting for the week
The development of LNG import terminals in Europe is slowing down, indicating that countries are reassessing future gas demand. According to the updated European LNG Tracker report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), LNG regasification volumes in Europe increased by 13% in 2023, with growth of 2% forecast for this year. The slowdown in the construction of LNG terminals in Europe comes amid the IEEFA’s forecast of a 15% and 20% decline in gas consumption and LNG imports on the continent between 2025 and 2030, respectively.
Record imports of russian LNG to Europe rose by 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record level for any six-month period. The EU continues to increase imports of russian LNG even after imposing sanctions on LNG transactions. Although the EU plans to ban imports of russian LNG from January 2027, imports from the country rose by 7% year-on-year in early 2025, according to the IEEFA. In the first half of 2025, France accounted for 41% of russian LNG imports to Europe, followed by Belgium (28%), Spain (20%), the Netherlands (9%), and Portugal (2%). From the beginning of 2022 to June 2025, EU countries spent around EUR 120 billion on imports of pipeline gas and LNG from russia.