Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the past week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have fluctuated in different directions, with trading activity remaining low.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for September and October 2025 resources. In total, four companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: BNK Joint Venture, Ukrzaliznytsia, LTK Electrum, and Tviy Gaz.
Starting prices for resources varied throughout the week, including depending on the type of position – for purchase or sale. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price for resources in the UGS was 1.22% lower than on Tuesday.
Over the past week, purchase positions were executed. A total of 6,930,000 cubic meters of natural gas was sold. This volume was purchased by Ukrzaliznytsia with delivery in September and October at prices ranging from 19,990 to 20,150 UAH excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants mainly placed bids on the intraday market in the GTS. A total of 215,000 cubic meters of natural gas was sold. The weighted average price of natural gas on Friday, September 19, was UAH 19,558.17 excluding VAT.
European market
Markets strengthened slightly last week as maintenance at a North Sea gas plant put pressure on exports to the continent during the last peak of off-season maintenance work.
Active wind generation over the past week has put pressure on gas demand for power generation, although the latest forecasts indicate that wind power generation will be below seasonal normal levels for most of the next two weeks. Reuters particularly notes that in the UK, the decline in wind power has increased the share of gas generation and made the market more sensitive to wind fluctuations ahead of winter. This means that even with sufficient reserves, short “cold and windless” episodes can cause local price shocks.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 18.09.2025
| Instrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 32,71 | 35,14 | 32,57 | 36,86 | 35,10 | 34,48 |
| M+1 | 33,43 | 34,87 | 32,86 | 35,81 | 36,14 | 34,62 |
| Q +1 | 34,15 | 35,08 | 33,37 | 36,74 | 35,64 | 35,00 |
| S +1 | 34,51 | 35,36 | 33,65 | 37,42 | 34,72 | 35,13 |
Month-ahead contracts on all analyzed hubs showed a different trend in spot prices, rising by an average of 0.49%. Quarterly forward prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 1.58%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of €35.13/MWh, were higher than spot prices by an average of 1.98%.
Temperature forecasts predict a short-term peak in average temperatures, followed by a further decline, which will lead to increased demand for gas for heating as seasonal temperatures continue to fall. However, the latest seasonal data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate the likelihood of a less mild winter than previously expected, and a sharp cold snap (or events on the geopolitical arena) could still fuel optimism on the markets.
EU gas storage facilities continue to fill at a moderate pace and are now 81.09% full (Germany ~75%), with weekly injections averaging just over 1%, helping to ease concerns about supplies ahead of winter. This is significantly less than a year earlier, but taking into account additional LNG export volumes that are expected to come online during the winter season due to the commissioning of Eni Congo’s facilities (scheduled to start at the end of 2025 (≈2.4 mtpa) and Golden Pass (likely to start at the end of 2025/beginning of 2026), even 81% storage capacity in the EU provides some reduction in the risk of price increases ahead of winter.
The November LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at $412.60 per thousand cubic meters on September 18. Futures for LNG delivered to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at $393.26/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 53.4% on September 17.
LNG stocks in the EU stood at 4,600 m³ LNG as of September 17, 2025, according to Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors (ALSI) by GIE.
According to the latest EIA data as of September 12, 2025, the storage level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 3.433 billion cubic feet, which is 6.3% higher than the average for the last five years.
The price of Brent crude oil settled at $67.24 per barrel on September 18, down 0.24% for the day. Concerns about oversupply and declining demand in the US appear to outweigh expectations that the US Federal Reserve’s first rate cut this year will lead to an increase in consumption of this commodity.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe amounted to 23.4 million cubic meters per day, increasing slightly since the beginning of September. Imports came from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland.
The basis of imports was the Hungarian and Slovak directions. There was no export. There were about 12.15 billion cubic meters of natural gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. There was practically no withdrawal. Injections were about 52 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
EU intends to accelerate ban on russian LNG in its upcoming sanctions package. The European Commission is considering a proposal to accelerate the ban on Russian liquefied natural gas as part of new sanctions. The United States has increased pressure on Europe to take stronger action to end russia’s war in Ukraine. Trump’s demands include a halt to all purchases of russian oil by European countries and the imposition of EU tariffs on China and India, which are major buyers of russian fossil fuels. He has also put pressure on the Group of Seven (G7) and NATO countries, which include Turkey, a buyer of russian oil. The EU is negotiating plans to completely stop importing russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028, with a ban on short-term contracts due to come into effect next year. Earlier this year, the European Commission abandoned plans to sanction LNG imports and instead imposed a ban on the transshipment of russian LNG at EU ports as part of a previous sanctions package.
Currently, about 19% of gas to Europe is supplied from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline and liquefied natural gas, down from about 45% by 2022. Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands and France receive Russian LNG, while gas via TurkStream goes to Slovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria.
A decision on the idea of merging SEFE and Uniper could be made in the coming weeks, the German Economy Ministry said. The German Economy Ministry, responsible for the former Gazprom unit SEFE, is considering a full or partial merger with the financially backed company Uniper, two sources said. The economy ministry supports the potential merger, while the finance ministry, which owns 99.12% of Berlin’s shares in Uniper, is taking a more cautious stance, one of the sources said. The EU has called on Berlin to reduce its stake in both companies to 25% plus one share by 2028, with options for a separate listing and asset sale. According to two sources, one of the proposals being discussed involves creating a German gas conglomerate by merging the two companies’ gas purchasing, trading and storage operations. SEFE controls 4,200 kilometers, or 10%, of Germany’s gas network, while Uniper is the country’s leading gas importer. Each company operates about a quarter of Germany’s gas storage capacity and handles a significant portion of its commodity trading operations. SEFE engaged consultants to participate in the reprivatization process, and these appointments were made independently of the different options. SEFE and Uniper were nationalized in 2022 to ensure uninterrupted supply.