Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the past week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have fluctuated, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in resources for September and October 2025 continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 4 companies: LTK Electrum, Tviy Gaz, Energo Zbut Trans, and JV BNK.
The starting prices of resources increased during the week, but varied depending on the conditions of each position. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of the October resource in the GTS was 21.61% higher than Monday’s figure.
During the past week, purchase positions were sold. A total of 177 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. This volume was purchased by the company Energo Zbut Trans: October resource at a price of 20168 UAH/thousand cubic meters excluding VAT.
On the short-term natural gas market of the Ukrainian Exchange, participants formed applications mainly on the intraday market in the GTS. In total, 766 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold and 28 deals were concluded. The weighted average price of the gas exchange on Friday, September 26, was UAH 19,525.45 excluding VAT.
European market
Gas and power markets in Europe and the UK stabilized last week after strong wind activity led to lower prices. With temperatures dropping and suppliers strained after the end of October hedging, winter 2025 contracts remain near post-crisis lows, leaving companies with only limited time to get good prices before potential winter volatility. For example, UK gas price curves remained range-bound on September 25, with gains of less than 1% throughout the session. Earlier this year, Winter-25 futures were trading at a 17% premium to Winter-26, but Winter-26 is now 1% higher. This change reflects reduced concerns about storage fill risks, which has limited near-term upside potential.
The range of the TTF front-month week remained narrow (~32 EUR±0.5). The price was simultaneously pressured by the completion of maintenance in Norway and strikes in France (Elengy declared force majeure at three terminals and unloading was prohibited until October 2) and the weather.
Prices of contracts with delivery on time, EUR/MWh, 25.09.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,32 | 34,33 | 32,43 | 37,24 | 34,87 | 34,44 |
| M+1 | 33,25 | 34,45 | 32,50 | 35,94 | 35,13 | 34,25 |
| Q +1 | 33,77 | 34,55 | 32,91 | 36,62 | 35,08 | 34,59 |
| S +1 | 34,04 | 34,69 | 33,11 | 37,08 | 34,09 | 34,60 |
Month-ahead contracts, at all analyzed hubs, had a different trend in relation to spot prices – a decrease in price by an average of 0.48%. Quarter-ahead prices were higher than spot prices by an average of 0.48%. Season-ahead prices with an average value of 34.60 EUR/MWh had a tendency to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 0.53%.
EU gas storage facilities are 79.86% full (909.99 TWh), below last year’s level on the same dates, as temperatures across the European continent have steadily dropped by 5°C this week to below seasonal levels. At the same time, unscheduled maintenance at the northern fields of Christina and Asgard increased by 15.6 million cubic meters per day, which led to a reduction in supplies to the region. Poland was the first EU country to reach 100% UGS occupancy in the reporting week.
Declining demand for LNG in China has led to a decline in competitiveness in the markets. November LNG futures in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at USD 401.68 per thousand cubic meters on September 25. Futures for LNG delivered to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at USD 383.24 per thousand cubic meters.
European LNG receiving terminals were operating on September 23 with an average capacity of 53.0%.
LNG stocks in the EU as of September 23, 2025 were 4.615 million cubic meters of LNG, according to data from Aggregated LNG Storage Inventories (ALSI) by GIE.
The storage fill level of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, according to the latest EIA data as of September 19, 2025, was 3,508 Bcf, which is 6.1% higher than the average for the last five years.
Brent crude traded at USD 69.55 per barrel on September 26, buoyed by a geopolitical risk premium, leading to a weekly gain of more than 4%.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe amounted to 23.6 million cubic meters per day, increasing slightly in September. Imports were present from Slovakia, Hungary, Poland. The basis of imports was the Hungarian and Slovak directions. Exports were absent. Ukraine’s storage facilities contained about 12.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Withdrawals were practically absent. Injections amounted to about 50 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
Bulgaria will suspend the transit of russian gas under short-term contracts in 2026 as part of the European Union’s plans to completely stop importing russian gas, Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov told the Bulgarian news agency BTA. The EC is promoting the 19th package, which includes an accelerated ban on russian LNG by January 1, 2027 and, in parallel, closes the "loopholes" for LPG.
Turkey has signed a 20-year deal with trading company Mercuria to buy American liquefied natural gas, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump calls on Europe to stop buying russian energy. The deal was struck ahead of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s meeting with Trump on Thursday. russia is Turkey’s largest supplier of imported gas, although Ankara has diversified in recent years. The new deal is one of several it has signed this month ahead of the expiry of agreements to import at least 16 billion cubic meters of gas from russia per year. Turkey will receive 4 billion cubic meters of LNG from the US annually from 2026. The total supply over 20 years will be about 70 billion cubic meters.