Gas price: Ukraine and Europe. Market overview
Over the last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine have fluctuated in different directions, partly following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading continued for the October 2025 resource. In total, four companies formed positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas: Gazservis Trade, LTK Electrum, Tviy Gaz, and SP BNK.
Starting prices for resources varied throughout the week, including depending on the type of position – for purchase or sale. During the week, no weighted average sales prices were formed on the medium- and long-term markets.
Activity on the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX increased significantly in October. Participants placed orders on the within-day market and the day-ahead market in the gas transmission system. A total of 116 agreements were concluded with a total volume of 3.54 million cubic meters. Over the past two weeks, 16 participating companies have managed to conclude agreements. By October 10, there was a slight increase in the weighted average price of natural gas - +1% from the September 29 figure.
European market
Last week, markets were again volatile: while on October 3, day-ahead market prices reached an 18-month low, they then rose to a four-month high in just two sessions on October 7. At the end of the week, gas prices were affected by a slight drop in temperature combined with the redirection of Norwegian flows towards the more limited European market.
The risk of price increases is mitigated by revised forecasts of higher temperatures in Europe at the end of October, which limits demand for gas, as well as a reduction in geopolitical risks associated with the ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. Although the conflict does not directly affect global supplies, de-escalation reduces the risk of new conflicts that may arise, following the example of the 12-day war between Iran and Israel.
Prices of contracts with delivery within the specified period, EUR/MWh, 09.10.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 33,09 | 34,39 | 32,29 | 37,98 | 35,02 | 34,55 |
| M+1 | 33,31 | 34,36 | 32,43 | 36,00 | 34,07 | 34,03 |
| Q +1 | 33,91 | 34,66 | 32,80 | 37,03 | 34,60 | |
| S +1 | 32,16 | 33,78 | 30,92 | 35,02 | 32,97 |
Month-ahead contracts on all analyzed hubs showed a different trend compared to spot prices, falling by an average of 1.38%. Quarterly forward prices were lower than spot prices by an average of 19.53%. Seasonal forward prices, with an average value of €32.97/MWh, were lower than spot prices by an average of 23.32%.
On Saturday, October 4, Qatar suspended all waterborne operations in its waters due to a technical malfunction in the global positioning system. This occurred amid a sharp increase in GPS jamming incidents in the region, causing hundreds of ships to encounter obstacles in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar accounts for just under 20% of global LNG exports, so supply disruptions could cause significant price increases. On Monday, Qatar’s Ministry of Transport partially lifted the suspension.
In the near term, temperatures below seasonal norms are forecast for the European market from October 14 to 20, which will support demand for gas for heating across Europe. This could lead to an increase in the cost of gas imports to the UK and a slowdown in injection rates. In turn, there are concerns about the low level of storage capacity utilization (82.82%), with pumping rates looking sluggish in the first week of the month. The European Commission’s forecast for capacity utilization by November 1 has now been lowered to 85.14%. Last week saw the first net decline in pumping levels since spring, increasing the risk of supply disruptions during the winter period. This is a potential source of risk for price increases in the event of a cold winter.
There’s an extra risk because it’s been confirmed that recent russian attacks this week have messed up some of Ukraine’s gas production. By March 2026, if the attacks keep going, they might need to import more natural gas.
There has been a decline in competitive demand from Asian and Egyptian markets. The November LNG futures contract in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled at $396.66 per thousand cubic meters on October 9. Futures for LNG supplied to North-West Europe (LNG North West Europe Marker) closed at $377.51/thousand cubic meters.
European LNG terminals operated at an average capacity of 49.0% on October 9.
Brent crude oil traded at $64.92 per barrel on October 10, down 0.5% from Thursday, influenced by a reduction in market risks following a possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Gas balance in Ukraine
Natural gas imports from Europe amounted to 22.4 million cubic meters per day. Imports came from Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Hungarian and Polish sources accounted for the bulk of imports. There were no exports, with the exception of an estimated 1 million cubic meters of biomethane, which was exported in early October. Ukraine’s storage facilities held approximately 13 billion cubic meters of natural gas. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injection amounted to approximately 22 million cubic meters per day.
Public procurements
Last week, 10 tender procedures were held for the purchase of natural gas by budgetary institutions and state-owned enterprises. A total of 503,776 cubic meters of natural gas was sold for UAH 10,533,346.43 excluding VAT. The largest contract was awarded to GAZENERGO-TRADE, which will supply the Reni branch of the State Enterprise “AMPU” with 200,000 cubic meters of natural gas at an initial price of 20.95 UAH/cubic meter excluding VAT. The average price was UAH 21.05 per cubic meter. Prices ranged from UAH 20.47 to UAH 21.48 per cubic meter excluding VAT.