Gas price: Ukraine Europe. Market overview
Last week, natural gas prices in Ukraine were stable, following the trends of European hubs.
Ukrainian Energy Exchange
Last week, trading in July 2025, August 2025 and subsequent months continued. In total, positions for the purchase and sale of natural gas were formed by 3 companies: GTS Operator of Ukraine, LTC Electrum, and Ukrzaliznytsia.
The starting prices of resources on the Medium and Long-Term Market section decreased throughout the week. As a result, as of Friday, the average starting price of August resources in the GTS was 2.33% lower than on Monday.
Last week, only buy positions were sold. In total, 26700 thousand cubic meters of natural gas were sold. The entire volume in this section was purchased by the Ukrainian GTS Operator. The following quotation prices were formed during the week, as shown in the chart below.
In addition, in the Imported Natural Gas section, 6 million cubic meters were sold at prices in the range of UAH 22325 - 22400 with delivery to the UGS facilities, and in the Cross-border Customs Warehouse section, about 7 million cubic meters of natural gas were sold at prices in the range of EUR 40.8-43.3/MWh with delivery at a point on the international border.
On the short-term natural gas market of the UEEX, participants placed bids on the within-day market. During the week, 125 thousand cubic meters were sold. On Friday, July 18, the weighted average price of the DAM amounted to UAH 2,050 excluding VAT and remained unchanged throughout the week.
European market
Since the beginning of last week, gas prices have been on the rise due to news of a major unplanned maintenance outage at a Norwegian gas asset. On July 16 in the morning, gas prices continued to rise amid news of another unplanned event at the Kollsness processing plant in Norway, which had a significant impact on production volumes of 51.5 mcm/d in the middle of the week. Starting July 18, Gassco announced that it is expected to fully recover over the weekend. TTF Day Ahead at the end of the week hovered around 34.2 EUR/MWh, which is almost 18% less than in early June. TTF Win-25 contracts are trading below Sum -26 - the market expects weaker demand or higher supplies in 2026.
In addition, the upcoming Norwegian maintenance period is expected to reduce supplies in August and September, while Germany’s largest gas storage facility, Reden, remains virtually empty and there is limited interest in contracts to fill storage before winter. The current capacity of the Reden storage facilities is 4% full, despite the fact that some capacity was secured in yesterday’s auction, the vast majority still remains unfilled, indicating a potential bottleneck in the first months of winter as the storage facilities need to be filled to meet EU requirements.
Prices of contracts with delivery in the respective period, EUR/MWh, 17.07.2025
| Іnstrument | THE | CEGH | TTF | TGE/POLPX | CEEGEX/HUDEX | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day1 | 35,59 | 37,67 | 33,95 | 40,18 | 38,65 | 37,21 |
| M+1 | 35,67 | 37,9 | 34,47 | 39,88 | 35,38 | 36,66 |
| Q +1 | 37,07 | 38,09 | 35,81 | 42,25 | 36,87 | 38,02 |
| S +1 | 37,23 | 38,22 | 36,02 | 42,51 | 36,81 | 38,16 |
Month-ahead contracts at all the analyzed hubs showed a different trend from spot prices, with an average decrease of 1.37%. Quarter-ahead prices were 2.26% higher than spot prices on average. The season-ahead prices with an average value of 38.16 EUR/MWh tended to increase compared to spot prices by an average of 2.64%.
Currently, gas supplies to the European continent remain stable, allowing gas to be injected into storage facilities to prepare for the winter period. However, injections remain tightly balanced, and rising demand in Asia, due to high temperatures and increased production, poses a high risk as the price war for LNG cargoes intensifies, leading to better margins for shippers in the Asian market. On July 16, Korea Gas announced that it is seeking to double its LNG imports from the US to reduce its trade deficit. Last year, the US accounted for 11% of Korea’s LNG, meaning that any increase in US imports would reduce supplies to other regions, including the UK and Europe.
Despite the UK market’s decline over the past few sessions, the European benchmark TTF Day Ahead has narrowed the spread to its UK counterpart to 1.99p/therm (0.07p/kWh), with the spread reaching 6.29p/therm at the beginning of the month. This narrowing has resulted in exports from the UK to Europe, with a total of 50.8 mcm/d exported via IUK and BBL, a sharp decline from the large import volumes when the spread was wider. This is particularly atypical for this month, when the UK usually imports more due to weak demand in Europe.
The hotter weather of last month is largely behind us, but due to lower wind generation in Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands, demand for gas for electricity generation increased. This partially offset weak industrial demand.
The difference between JKM and Northwest Europe Marker widened to the largest premium in favor of Asia since the beginning of the year: 45 USD/tcm. This is driving cargo reorientation. August futures for LNG in Asia, the JKM Platts Future index, settled on July 17 at USD 469.16 per thousand cubic meters. US dollars per thousand cubic meters. The LNG North West Europe Marker remained stable and closed at USD 424.37 per /thousand cubic meters. The risks of a shift in cargo flows in favor of Asia in the event of further consumption growth are real.
As of July 16, EU storage facilities were at 63.88% and were being pumped in somewhat slower than in previous weeks. This level is the lowest for this period in the last 3 years, which increases the risks ahead of Q4. European LNG terminals were operating on July 16 with an average capacity of 79.83%.
As of July 16, 2025, LNG reserves in the EU amounted to 5.036 million cubic meters, according to the Aggregated LNG Storage Inventors.
According to the latest EIA data, as of July 11, 2025, the storage capacity of the largest LNG exporter, the United States, was 3.052 billion cubic feet, which is 6.2% higher than the average for the last five years.
In the adjacent market, Brent crude oil was trading at USD 70.17/barrel as prices rose following news that the EU has agreed to further sanctions on Russian oil exports, with restrictions on Russia’s 105-ship shadow fleet now subject to further scrutiny and countries and ports receiving these cargoes at risk of EU sanctions.
Gas balance in Ukraine
During the week, natural gas imports from the European direction averaged 27 million cubic meters per day, from Hungary, Poland, Moldova, and Slovakia. The Hungarian direction was mainly used. Ukraine had about 9 bcm in storage facilities. There was virtually no withdrawal. Injections amounted to about 54 million cubic meters per day.
Interesting for the week
The EU will ban gas imports through the Nord Stream pipeline as part of new sanctions against russia. According to the bloc’s foreign policy chief on Friday, the EU has imposed one of the strongest packages of sanctions against russia, including a ban on imports from the Nord Stream pipeline and stricter restrictions on oil exports. Kaya Kallas said on X: "We are standing firm. The EU has just approved one of the strongest sanctions packages against russia to date." She noted: "Imports through the Nord Stream pipeline will be banned. There will be a lower price ceiling for oil. We are increasing pressure on russia’s military industry by targeting Chinese banks that facilitate sanctions evasion and restricting exports of technology used in drones." The package also adds sanctions to 105 more vessels linked to russia’s shadowy fleet and restricts russian banks’ access to international financing, Kallas explained. Kallas also said that the EU has for the first time designated a foreign flag registry and sanctioned India’s largest oil refinery, owned by the russian company rosneft. “We will continue to raise costs so that stopping the aggression is the only option for moscow,” she concluded.